Daily Papers

Despite the impressive feats demonstrated by Reinforcement Learning (RL), these algorithms have seen little adoption in high-risk, real-world applications due to current difficulties in explaining RL agent actions and building user trust. We present Counterfactual Demonstrations for Explanation (CODEX), a method that incorporates semantic clustering, which can effectively summarize RL agent behavior in the state-action space. Experimentation on the MiniGrid and StarCraft II gaming environments reveals the semantic clusters retain temporal as well as entity information, which is reflected in the constructed summary of agent behavior. Furthermore, clustering the discrete+continuous game-state latent representations identifies the most crucial episodic events, demonstrating a relationship between the latent and semantic spaces. This work contributes to the growing body of work that strives to unlock the power of RL for widespread use by leveraging and extending techniques from Natural Language Processing.

Visual in-context learning (ICL) enables vision-language models (VLMs) to adapt at test time via demonstration examples, but its effectiveness depends critically on the examples selected. Recent counterfactual selection methods improve ICL by constructing demonstrations that expose how individual attribute changes affect the answer. However, they require multi-stage pipelines involving attribute extraction, caption engineering, and composed image matching. We propose a simpler alternative grounded in a key observation: a model's own prediction errors are natural counterfactual demonstrations that directly encode its failure modes. Our method, SMILE (Self-Mined Visual In-Context Learning from Errors), builds a model-specific pool of hard negatives offline by recording the target VLM's own mistakes. At test time, the prediction serves as a direction signal that surfaces, in the semantic embedding space, the past mistakes most likely to recur for the current query. This prediction-conditioned identification provides a unified mechanism for both closed-set classification and open-ended visual question answering without task-specific design. Across four benchmarks and four VLMs, SMILE delivers an average task-score gain of +3.09 points over the SOTA baseline at 5x lower latency. Project page: https://tree-shu-zhao.github.io/SMILE/

Grounding the common-sense reasoning of Large Language Models in physical domains remains a pivotal yet unsolved problem for embodied AI. Whereas prior works have focused on leveraging LLMs directly for planning in symbolic spaces, this work uses LLMs to guide the search of task structures and constraints implicit in multi-step demonstrations. Specifically, we borrow from manipulation planning literature the concept of mode families, which group robot configurations by specific motion constraints, to serve as an abstraction layer between the high-level language representations of an LLM and the low-level physical trajectories of a robot. By replaying a few human demonstrations with synthetic perturbations, we generate coverage over the demonstrations' state space with additional successful executions as well as counterfactuals that fail the task. Our explanation-based learning framework trains an end-to-end differentiable neural network to predict successful trajectories from failures and as a by-product learns classifiers that ground low-level states and images in mode families without dense labeling. The learned grounding classifiers can further be used to translate language plans into reactive policies in the physical domain in an interpretable manner. We show our approach improves the interpretability and reactivity of imitation learning through 2D navigation and simulated and real robot manipulation tasks. Website: https://sites.google.com/view/grounding-plans

Evaluating recommender systems remains challenging due to the gap between offline metrics and real user behavior, as well as the scarcity of interaction data. Recent work explores large language model (LLM) agents as synthetic users, yet they typically rely on few-shot prompting, which yields a shallow understanding of the environment and limits their ability to faithfully reproduce user actions. We introduce AlignUSER, a framework that learns world-model-driven agents from human interactions. Given rollout sequences of actions and states, we formalize world modeling as a next state prediction task that helps the agent internalize the environment. To align actions with human personas, we generate counterfactual trajectories around demonstrations and prompt the LLM to compare its decisions with human choices, identify suboptimal actions, and extract lessons. The learned policy is then used to drive agent interactions with the recommender system. We evaluate AlignUSER across multiple datasets and demonstrate closer alignment with genuine humans than prior work, both at the micro and macro levels.

World-action models (WAMs) couple future prediction with robot control, yet existing systems often vary the video backbone, interaction structure, supervision, and inference procedure simultaneously, making their design choices difficult to compare. We introduce OPENWAM, an open world-action modeling framework built around a common causal robot-video foundation and configurable video-action interaction. Starting from Wan2.2-5B, we perform causal robot-video pretraining on over 10,000 hours of video, then integrate an action expert through a shared Mixture-of-Transformers architecture that supports joint, video-then-action, action-then-video, and decoupled generation. OPENWAM achieves high success rates on four LIBERO suites and real-world bimanual tasks; robot-video training with causal adaptation improves VTA success on LIBERO-Long from 68.4% to 97.8%. The same configurable architecture naturally extends to inverse and forward dynamics, allowing us to study how counterfactual transitions improve independently trained dynamics models beyond demonstrations alone. When only the video predictor is adapted to a new task, a frozen local-context inverse dynamics model trained on counterfactual data and demonstrations achieves 84.0% mean success across four held-out LIBERO-90 tasks, compared with 47.0% for a full-context inverse model and 21.5% for a local-context model trained only on demonstrations. For forward dynamics, counterfactual supervision reduces RGB prediction error by 34.5% and raises outcome identification from 21.1% to 71.3% among 16 same-state outcomes. OPENWAM provides a common testbed for comparing WAM interaction designs and for studying dynamics learning from video data beyond successful demonstrations.

Learning from demonstrations (LfD) provides a framework for inferring unknown constraints from locally optimal, constraint-satisfying expert behavior. Existing approaches largely fall into two paradigms, constrained inverse optimal control (CIOC) and inverse constrained reinforcement learning (ICRL). CIOC exploits optimality conditions such as the Karush--Kuhn--Tucker (KKT) conditions but typically assumes known dynamics and structured constraint representations. Meanwhile, ICRL accommodates complex unknown constraints and unknown transition dynamics but often requires extensive online exploration, during which unsafe constraint violations may occur. In this work, we introduce Counterfactual KKT (CF-KKT), a constraint learning framework that leverages learned dynamics and locally optimal demonstrations to recover unknown constraints without requiring known dynamics or additional risky exploration, thereby combining the data efficiency and safety advantages of CIOC with the flexibility of ICRL. First, we use a locally learned differentiable dynamics model to impose KKT-inspired optimality conditions directly on the demonstrations. Second, we use the learned dynamics to generate reward-improving counterfactual behaviors near the demonstrations, revealing behaviors that would be preferable in the absence of the unknown constraint and thus providing synthetic infeasible data. When the constraint parameterization is known, the same learned-dynamics framework enables direct CIOC-based parameter recovery, and we characterize its sensitivity to dynamics misspecification. Across high-dimensional robotic control tasks, our approach learns neural constraint representations with improved safety and data efficiency relative to state-of-the-art offline ICRL baselines.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable performance in a range of natural language understanding and generation tasks. Yet, their ability to generate counterfactuals, which can be used for areas like data augmentation, remains under-explored. This study aims to investigate the counterfactual generation capabilities of LLMs and analysis factors that influence this ability. First, we evaluate how effective are LLMs in counterfactual generation through data augmentation experiments for small language models (SLMs) across four tasks: sentiment analysis, natural language inference, named entity recognition, and relation extraction. While LLMs show promising enhancements in various settings, they struggle in complex tasks due to their self-limitations and the lack of logical guidance to produce counterfactuals that align with commonsense. Second, our analysis reveals the pivotal role of providing accurate task definitions and detailed step-by-step instructions to LLMs in generating counterfactuals. Interestingly, we also find that LLMs can generate reasonable counterfactuals even with unreasonable demonstrations, which illustrates that demonstrations are primarily to regulate the output format.This study provides the first comprehensive insight into counterfactual generation abilities of LLMs, and offers a novel perspective on utilizing LLMs for data augmentation to enhance SLMs.

Self-Distillation Fine-Tuning (SDFT) enables a language model to act as its own teacher: by conditioning on a demonstration, the model produces an implicit reward via pointwise mutual information, which guides on-policy learning without external supervision. However, SDFT operates at training time: it requires gradient updates and access to expert demonstrations, making it inapplicable at inference. We propose test-time self-distillation, a decoding-time method that extracts a steering signal from the self-distillation framework without any parameter updates, reward models, or training data. Our key insight is that counterfactual contexts, i.e. fixed textual templates that hypothetically prime the model for excellent versus poor reasoning, can substitute for the demonstration. The log-odds ratio of a candidate answer under these two counterfactual conditions defines a new reward signal. We derive the optimal KL-regularized policy under this reward, which takes the form of a Gibbs reweighting of the base distribution. Crucially, this reweighting is global: it cannot be decomposed into independent per-token operations without ignoring future trajectory quality. We therefore approximate the target distribution via beam search. Experiments on mathematical reasoning (MATH500), code generation (HumanEval), and graduate-level science QA (GPQA) across multiple model scales show that test-time self-distillation improves over standard sampling, low temperature, beam search and power sampling baselines on average, demonstrating that the self-distillation principle can be operationalized at inference time.

Autonomous long-horizon sidewalk navigation is essential for micro-mobility applications such as robotic food delivery and assistive electronic wheelchairs. Unlike autonomous driving on the road, long-horizon sidewalk navigation requires precise maneuvering through unpredictable sidewalk terrains and pedestrians, with a lightweight perception stack as minimal as a single monocular RGB camera. While imitation learning (IL) from demonstrations offers a practical solution, the resulting autopilot policy often suffers from compounding errors, a lack of social compliance on sidewalks, and deficiencies in counterfactual reasoning to handle complex situations. To address these challenges, we introduce FlowPilot, a mapless navigation policy that achieves robust and efficient long-horizon navigation performance using only a monocular RGB camera. We first propose to use anchored flow matching as an action representation for policy pre-training on large-scale robot fleet data and to capture the diverse, complex, multimodal distribution of sidewalk navigation behaviors. To bridge the gap between imitation and alignment, we further design a human-in-the-loop preference learning scheme to tune the policy on a small amount of human intervention data. It strengthens the model's counterfactual reasoning and social compliance on sidewalks. We evaluate FlowPilot through extensive simulation and real-world experiments in diverse sidewalk environments. FlowPilot achieves 42% success rate and 66% route completion in simulation, while FlowPilot-HP further improves real-world robustness and social compliance, reducing IR by 40.0% and NIR by 52.1% relative to the base model.

Bimanual dexterous tool use remains challenging for robots due to high-dimensional hand configurations and complex hand-tool-object dynamics and contact. Most existing control policies depend on future configuration references provided from demonstrations, while future action-conditioned world models require slow online planning over high-dimensional action sequences. A significant challenge is generating a dynamically consistent future reference trajectory without relying on privileged states from demonstrations or slow counterfactual planning. We propose DexFuture, a hierarchical system that couples a high-level Future-State Visuomotor Target Predictor with a low-level Target-Conditioned Structured Dexterous Policy. Conditioned on egocentric RGB, proprioceptive and geometric history, the high-level predictor constructs structured hand-tool-object visuomotor embeddings and uses a horizon-conditioned transformer to generate a multi-step future target trajectory. Then, the low-level policy tracks them with a target-conditioned per-link transformer. This hierarchy decouples coarse future reference generation from fine-grained action control, and slow long-horizon semantic prediction from high-frequency execution. On OakInk2 bimanual tool-use tasks, DexFuture achieves 90% of the privileged-oracle performance, compared to 7% for a no-reference policy. DexFuture operates at 60 Hz, approximately 250 times faster than DexWM-style Cross-Entropy Method (CEM) planning with a future action-conditioned world model.

Reasoning requires adaptation to novel problem settings under limited data and distribution shift. This work introduces CausalARC: an experimental testbed for AI reasoning in low-data and out-of-distribution regimes, modeled after the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC). Each CausalARC reasoning task is sampled from a fully specified causal world model, formally expressed as a structural causal model. Principled data augmentations provide observational, interventional, and counterfactual feedback about the world model in the form of few-shot, in-context learning demonstrations. As a proof-of-concept, we illustrate the use of CausalARC for four language model evaluation settings: (1) abstract reasoning with test-time training, (2) counterfactual reasoning with in-context learning, (3) program synthesis, and (4) causal discovery with logical reasoning.

Large-scale video generation models are increasingly viewed as a promising path toward world models, yet their ability to capture causally coherent physical dynamics remains poorly understood. Existing evaluations largely emphasize visual quality, prompt adherence, or broad physical plausibility, leaving open whether a model can faithfully realize a complete causal cascade, in which an initiating event propagates through causally dependent interactions to a terminal outcome. We introduce CausalCascade, a simulator-grounded benchmark centered on 50 event-rich Blender scenes with structured event graphs, graph-grounded diagnostic VQA, three levels of future-event specification, and 2,832 controlled counterfactual variants, and use it to evaluate nine image-to-video models with complementary motion-, event-, and counterfactual-level diagnostics. Across the evaluated models, generated motion is more reliably localized spatially than realized with correct spatiotemporal evolution, while richer future-event specification improves event recovery but leaves physical realization limited. Counterfactual evaluation further reveals weak selective responsiveness to physical interventions, while most audited failures are foundational, arising at scene consistency or event occurrence. Together, these results position causal cascade generation as a process-level test of world modeling and highlight the need to jointly recover the intended future, faithfully realize its physical evolution, selectively respond to physical interventions, and maintain a coherent physical world over time. Code and dataset are available at https://github.com/SJTU-DeepDeltaLab/CausalCascade .

Counterfactual explanations are attracting significant attention due to the flourishing applications of machine learning models in consequential domains. A counterfactual plan consists of multiple possibilities to modify a given instance so that the model's prediction will be altered. As the predictive model can be updated subject to the future arrival of new data, a counterfactual plan may become ineffective or infeasible with respect to the future values of the model parameters. In this work, we study the counterfactual plans under model uncertainty, in which the distribution of the model parameters is partially prescribed using only the first- and second-moment information. First, we propose an uncertainty quantification tool to compute the lower and upper bounds of the probability of validity for any given counterfactual plan. We then provide corrective methods to adjust the counterfactual plan to improve the validity measure. The numerical experiments validate our bounds and demonstrate that our correction increases the robustness of the counterfactual plans in different real-world datasets.

Multimodal counterfactual reasoning is a vital yet challenging ability for AI systems. It involves predicting the outcomes of hypothetical circumstances based on vision and language inputs, which enables AI models to learn from failures and explore hypothetical scenarios. Despite its importance, there are only a few datasets targeting the counterfactual reasoning abilities of multimodal models. Among them, they only cover reasoning over synthetic environments or specific types of events (e.g. traffic collisions), making them hard to reliably benchmark the model generalization ability in diverse real-world scenarios and reasoning dimensions. To overcome these limitations, we develop a video question answering dataset, ACQUIRED: it consists of 3.9K annotated videos, encompassing a wide range of event types and incorporating both first and third-person viewpoints, which ensures a focus on real-world diversity. In addition, each video is annotated with questions that span three distinct dimensions of reasoning, including physical, social, and temporal, which can comprehensively evaluate the model counterfactual abilities along multiple aspects. We benchmark our dataset against several state-of-the-art language-only and multimodal models and experimental results demonstrate a significant performance gap (>13%) between models and humans. The findings suggest that multimodal counterfactual reasoning remains an open challenge and ACQUIRED is a comprehensive and reliable benchmark for inspiring future research in this direction.

Counterfactual generation seeks to sample outcomes under a hypothetical intervention or decision using observational data collected under the factual assignment mechanism. We develop a flow-matching approach that combines a sample-split, doubly robust training objective with a learned coupling between observed source outcomes and target outcomes drawn from a fitted conditional outcome model. To enable finite-step generation, we leverage a score-corrected stochastic sampler based on a Gaussian-smoothed interpolation. Our main theoretical contribution is a coupling-sensitive KL bound for constant-step Euler discretization: the error is controlled by moments of the source--target displacement under the chosen coupling, rather than by global uniform regularity of the velocity field, and has near-linear dependence on the ambient dimension. We also establish finite-sample non-parametric guarantees for the learned velocity and score fields when both the conditional outcome model and the source-target coupling are estimated from data. These bounds separate approximation, coupling-replacement, nuisance-estimation, generalization, and Monte Carlo errors and, combined with the sampler analysis, yield an end-to-end guarantee for counterfactual generation. Experiments on synthetic and semi-synthetic image benchmarks support the coupling-dependent theory and show that, at finite discretization budgets, the stochastic sampler can outperform the corresponding deterministic ODE sampler.

Vision Language Models (VLMs) have recently shown significant advancements in video understanding, especially in feature alignment, event reasoning, and instruction-following tasks. However, their capability for counterfactual reasoning, inferring alternative outcomes under hypothetical conditions, remains underexplored. This capability is essential for robust video understanding, as it requires identifying underlying causal structures and reasoning about unobserved possibilities, rather than merely recognizing observed patterns. To systematically evaluate this capability, we introduce CounterVQA, a video-based benchmark featuring three progressive difficulty levels that assess different aspects of counterfactual reasoning. Through comprehensive evaluation of both state-of-the-art open-source and closed-source models, we uncover a substantial performance gap: while these models achieve reasonable accuracy on simple counterfactual questions, performance degrades significantly on complex multi-hop causal chains. To address these limitations, we develop a post-training method, CFGPT, that enhances a model's visual counterfactual reasoning ability by distilling its counterfactual reasoning capability from the language modality, yielding consistent improvements across all CounterVQA difficulty levels. Dataset and code will be further released.

Large Language Models have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across diverse tasks, yet they frequently generate hallucinations outputs that are fluent but factually incorrect or unsupported. We propose Counterfactual Probing, a novel approach for detecting and mitigating hallucinations in LLM outputs. Our method dynamically generates counterfactual statements that appear plausible but contain subtle factual errors, then evaluates the model's sensitivity to these perturbations. We hypothesize that genuine knowledge exhibits robustness to counterfactual variations, while hallucinated content shows inconsistent confidence patterns when confronted with plausible alternatives. Our comprehensive evaluation on TruthfulQA, factual statement datasets, and curated hallucination examples demonstrates that counterfactual probing achieves superior detection performance compared to baseline methods, while our adaptive mitigation strategies reduce hallucination scores by an average of 24.5%. The approach requires no model retraining and can be integrated into existing LLM pipelines as a realtime verification mechanism.

We study counterfactual identifiability in causal models with bijective generation mechanisms (BGM), a class that generalizes several widely-used causal models in the literature. We establish their counterfactual identifiability for three common causal structures with unobserved confounding, and propose a practical learning method that casts learning a BGM as structured generative modeling. Learned BGMs enable efficient counterfactual estimation and can be obtained using a variety of deep conditional generative models. We evaluate our techniques in a visual task and demonstrate its application in a real-world video streaming simulation task.

Counterfactual reasoning requires models to reason beyond the observed world and explain how altered conditions propagate through downstream consequences. Existing benchmarks largely target bounded settings with fixed variables or single gold outcomes, overlooking open-domain scenarios requiring causal-process evaluation. To this end, we present WhatIfBench, a diagnostic benchmark for open-domain, open-form, long-horizon counterfactual causal reasoning, containing 220 what-if questions across STEM, HSS, and Hybrid scenarios. To evaluate free-form responses, we further propose PRISM, which first converts each natural-language explanation into a Response-Derived Semantic Causal Graph of events, states, and mechanisms. On top of this graph, PRISM then jointly applies a Process Metric assessing graph-level causal validity and a Rubric Metric assessing answer-level explanatory adequacy. Evaluating six frontier LLMs with this framework, we find that WhatIfBench remains far from saturated: even the strongest model reaches only a 64.62% final score. Further analysis reveals persistent causal gaps, premise drift, and topology fragmentation, suggesting that fluent counterfactual narratives often mask fragile causal processes. The benchmark, code, and evaluation scripts are available at https://github.com/zju-gt/WhatIfBench{WhatIfBench}.

One well motivated explanation method for classifiers leverages counterfactuals which are hypothetical events identical to real observations in all aspects except for one categorical feature. Constructing such counterfactual poses specific challenges for texts, however, as some attribute values may not necessarily align with plausible real-world events. In this paper we propose a simple method for generating counterfactuals by intervening in the space of text representations which bypasses this limitation. We argue that our interventions are minimally disruptive and that they are theoretically sound as they align with counterfactuals as defined in Pearl's causal inference framework. To validate our method, we first conduct experiments on a synthetic dataset of counterfactuals, allowing for a direct comparison between classifier predictions based on ground truth counterfactuals (obtained through explicit text interventions) and our counterfactuals, derived through interventions in the representation space. Second, we study a real world scenario where our counterfactuals can be leveraged both for explaining a classifier and for bias mitigation.

Large language model (LLM)-powered agents can translate high-level user intents into plans and actions in an environment. Yet after observing an outcome, users may wonder: What if I had phrased my intent differently? We introduce a framework that enables such counterfactual reasoning in agentic LLM-driven control scenarios, while providing formal reliability guarantees. Our approach models the closed-loop interaction between a user, an LLM-based agent, and an environment as a structural causal model (SCM), and leverages test-time scaling to generate multiple candidate counterfactual outcomes via probabilistic abduction. Through an offline calibration phase, the proposed conformal counterfactual generation (CCG) yields sets of counterfactual outcomes that are guaranteed to contain the true counterfactual outcome with high probability. We showcase the performance of CCG on a wireless network control use case, demonstrating significant advantages compared to naive re-execution baselines.

Answering counterfactual queries has many important applications such as knowledge discovery and explainability, but is challenging when causal variables are unobserved and we only see a projection onto an observation space, for instance, image pixels. One approach is to recover the latent Structural Causal Model (SCM), but this typically needs unrealistic assumptions, such as linearity of the causal mechanisms. Another approach is to use na\"ive ML approximations, such as generative models, to generate counterfactual samples; however, these lack guarantees of accuracy. In this work, we strive to strike a balance between practicality and theoretical guarantees by focusing on a specific type of causal query called domain counterfactuals, which hypothesizes what a sample would have looked like if it had been generated in a different domain (or environment). Concretely, by only assuming invertibility, sparse domain interventions and access to observational data from different domains, we aim to improve domain counterfactual estimation both theoretically and practically with less restrictive assumptions. We define domain counterfactually equivalent models and prove necessary and sufficient properties for equivalent models that provide a tight characterization of the domain counterfactual equivalence classes. Building upon this result, we prove that every equivalence class contains a model where all intervened variables are at the end when topologically sorted by the causal DAG. This surprising result suggests that a model design that only allows intervention in the last k latent variables may improve model estimation for counterfactuals. We then test this model design on extensive simulated and image-based experiments which show the sparse canonical model indeed improves counterfactual estimation over baseline non-sparse models.

Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in multimodal reasoning. However, prevailing reinforcement learning (RL) paradigms lack explicit counterfactual enhancement and causal learning mechanisms. This fundamental deficiency results in severe grounding failures, manifesting as a tendency to ignore visual evidence in favor of language priors or exhibiting hallucination drift during long chain-of-thought reasoning. To address this root cause, we propose CounterFactual Policy Optimization (CFPO), a novel framework that enforces causal consistency between visual perception and textual reasoning. CFPO introduces a cross-modal counterfactual enhancement mechanism, which regularizes the policy by maximizing the discrepancy between the model's predictions and those from a counterfactual state where critical visual cues are suppressed. This approach seamlessly integrates with standard algorithms like GRPO and DAPO without requiring external reward models or additional supervision. Extensive experiments demonstrate that CFPO significantly improves reasoning fidelity, achieving consistent gains of 3.17%-6.25% over standard RL baselines and 1.32%-2.13% over the state-of-the-art perception-aware method (PAPO). Code is available at https://github.com/Raven-July/CFPO.

Models trained with counterfactually augmented data learn representations of the causal structure of tasks, enabling robust generalization. However, high-quality counterfactual data is scarce for most tasks and not easily generated at scale. When crowdsourced, such data is typically limited in scale and diversity; when generated using supervised methods, it is computationally expensive to extend to new counterfactual dimensions. In this work, we introduce DISCO (DIStilled COunterfactual Data), a new method for automatically generating high quality counterfactual data at scale. DISCO engineers prompts to generate phrasal perturbations with a large general language model. Then, a task-specific teacher model filters these generations to distill high-quality counterfactual data. While task-agnostic, we apply our pipeline to the task of natural language inference (NLI) and find that on challenging evaluations such as the NLI stress test, comparatively smaller student models trained with DISCO generated counterfactuals are more robust (6% absolute) and generalize better across distributions (2%) compared to models trained without data augmentation. Furthermore, DISCO augmented models are 10% more consistent between counterfactual pairs on three evaluation sets, demonstrating that DISCO augmentation enables models to more reliably learn causal representations. Our repository is available at: https://github.com/eric11eca/disco

Visual counterfactual explanations aim to change classifier decisions through realistic and localized edits while preserving decision-irrelevant content. Existing DDPM-based methods typically perform classifier-guided editing along a long reverse denoising trajectory. The changing noise levels make semantic editability and spatial control difficult to balance, and the editable state is noisy, whereas the target classifier is trained on clean images. As a result, these methods require either costly recursive denoising or low-quality one-step estimates to obtain classifier-facing clean images. We propose FiRe, a Fixed-noise Refinement framework for visual counterfactual explanations. Rather than following a reverse denoising trajectory, FiRe maps the input to a fixed noise level and iteratively refines the noisy state at that level. To provide clean images for classifier guidance, FiRe first adapts Pixel Mean Flow to visual counterfactual explanation, enabling direct clean-image prediction from noisy states. To make fixed-noise refinement produce minimal and localized counterfactual edits, FiRe introduces three FiRe-specific controls: a dynamic dual-mask strategy, adaptive guidance, and early stopping, which determine where edits accumulate, which changes become visible, and when refinement stops. Experiments on five tasks across three datasets show that, compared with the strongest recent baseline, FiRe achieves about 3times faster online inference and 8times fewer FLOPs while obtaining comparable or state-of-the-art counterfactual quality.

Video editing has advanced substantially in recent years, with methods increasingly accounting for the visual consequences of edits, such as changes to shadows and occlusions. However, the physical consequences of edits, including changes to subsequent motion and interactions, remain less explored. We formulate this problem as physical counterfactual video editing (PCVE), which aims to generate a counterfactual video depicting the resulting motion and interactions given a source video, a physical edit, and its execution frame. PCVE is challenging because it requires understanding scene physics and inferring the downstream motion and interactions induced by a physical intervention, while paired factual and counterfactual data and dedicated evaluation metrics are lacking. We introduce VideoPhysEdit, a new training-free pipeline for PCVE in rigid-body scenes. It makes physical reasoning explicit through a novel physical scene reconstruction method that recovers a scene reproducing the observed motion and interactions under simulation, enabling the pipeline to apply physical edits as interventions and use the resulting trajectories to guide counterfactual video generation. We further construct PCVE-RigidBench, a synthetic benchmark with paired source and counterfactual target videos and physical ground truth, and introduce the Physical Edit Score. VideoPhysEdit achieves substantially higher physical edit accuracy than open-source methods and commercial models while maintaining competitive visual fidelity. Its Physical Edit Score is 0.376, the only positive score among the compared methods. Qualitative comparisons on real videos further show that VideoPhysEdit applies to real-world scenes and better depicts the downstream motion and interactions induced by the edits than the compared methods. Code: https://github.com/Hammour-steak/VideoPhysEdit

Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) perform well on tasks such as visual question answering, but it remains unclear whether their reasoning relies more on memorized world knowledge or on the visual information present in the input image. To investigate this, we introduce Visual CounterFact, a new dataset of visually-realistic counterfactuals that put world knowledge priors (e.g, red strawberry) into direct conflict with visual input (e.g, blue strawberry). Using Visual CounterFact, we show that model predictions initially reflect memorized priors, but shift toward visual evidence in mid-to-late layers. This dynamic reveals a competition between the two modalities, with visual input ultimately overriding priors during evaluation. To control this behavior, we propose Pixels Versus Priors (PvP) steering vectors, a mechanism for controlling model outputs toward either world knowledge or visual input through activation-level interventions. On average, PvP successfully shifts 92.5% of color and 74.6% of size predictions from priors to counterfactuals. Together, these findings offer new tools for interpreting and controlling factual behavior in multimodal models.

Counterfactual data augmentation has recently emerged as a method to mitigate confounding biases in the training data for a machine learning model. These biases, such as spurious correlations, arise due to various observed and unobserved confounding variables in the data generation process. In this paper, we formally analyze how confounding biases impact downstream classifiers and present a causal viewpoint to the solutions based on counterfactual data augmentation. We explore how removing confounding biases serves as a means to learn invariant features, ultimately aiding in generalization beyond the observed data distribution. Additionally, we present a straightforward yet powerful algorithm for generating counterfactual images, which effectively mitigates the influence of confounding effects on downstream classifiers. Through experiments on MNIST variants and the CelebA datasets, we demonstrate the effectiveness and practicality of our approach.

Counterfactual reasoning, a hallmark of intelligence, consists of three steps: inferring latent variables from observations (abduction), constructing alternatives (interventions), and predicting their outcomes (prediction). This skill is essential for advancing LLMs' causal understanding and expanding their applications in high-stakes domains such as scientific research. However, existing efforts in assessing LLM's counterfactual reasoning capabilities tend to skip the abduction step, effectively reducing to interventional reasoning and leading to overestimation of LLM performance. To address this, we introduce executable counterfactuals, a novel framework that operationalizes causal reasoning through code and math problems. Our framework explicitly requires all three steps of counterfactual reasoning and enables scalable synthetic data creation with varying difficulty, creating a frontier for evaluating and improving LLM's reasoning. Our results reveal substantial drop in accuracy (25-40%) from interventional to counterfactual reasoning for SOTA models like o4-mini and Claude-4-Sonnet. To address this gap, we construct a training set comprising counterfactual code problems having if-else condition and test on out-of-domain code structures (e.g. having while-loop); we also test whether a model trained on code would generalize to counterfactual math word problems. While supervised finetuning on stronger models' reasoning traces improves in-domain performance of Qwen models, it leads to a decrease in accuracy on OOD tasks such as counterfactual math problems. In contrast, reinforcement learning induces the core cognitive behaviors and generalizes to new domains, yielding gains over the base model on both code (improvement of 1.5x-2x) and math problems. Analysis of the reasoning traces reinforces these findings and highlights the promise of RL for improving LLMs' counterfactual reasoning.

This paper presents a way of enhancing the reliability of Large Multimodal Models (LMMs) in addressing hallucination effects, where models generate incorrect or unrelated responses. Without additional instruction tuning paradigm, we introduce Counterfactual Inception, a novel method that implants counterfactual thoughts into LMMs using carefully chosen, misaligned counterfactual keywords. This method is grounded in the concept of counterfactual thinking, a cognitive process where humans consider alternative realities and outcomes. By applying this human-like reasoning mechanism to LMMs, we aim to reduce hallucination effects and improve the models' trustworthiness. We also propose Dual-modality Verification Process (DVP), a rigorous framework for selecting optimal counterfactual keywords to trigger counterfactual thinking into LMMs, concurrently considering visual and linguistic context. Our extensive experiments across various LMMs, including both open-source and proprietary models, corroborate that our method significantly mitigates hallucination phenomena across different datasets.

Text-to-image (T2I) generation models have achieved remarkable progress in producing visually realistic images from natural language prompts. Yet it remains unclear whether their success reflects genuine causal understanding or sophisticated pattern matching over visual-textual correlations. Inspired by Russell's inductivist turkey, we introduce Counterfactual-World (CF-World), a counterfactual benchmark designed to investigate whether text-to-image models can generate images under rules that systematically contradict real-world priors. CF-World organizes each scenario into three progressive levels: factual generation under ordinary world knowledge, explicit counterfactual generation with direct visual instructions, and implicit counterfactual generation requiring causal deduction from altered rules. We evaluate both open-source and closed-source T2I models using a Vision Language Model (VLM)-based evaluator (CF-Eval). Furthermore, we introduce two metrics: Prior Resistance Rate (PRR), which measures a model's ability to overcome entrenched real-world priors, and Reasoning Retention Rate (RRR), which assesses whether models can maintain reasoning-dependent counterfactual generation without explicit visual cues. Experiments show that all models exhibit sharp degradation from factual to counterfactual settings. Further analyses suggest that these failures arise because current T2I models encode world knowledge and visual appearances as tightly coupled patterns. Consequently, their heavy reliance on frequent visual co-occurrences within the training data forces them to default to familiar commonsense priors when tasked with rendering counterfactual worlds.

Accurately predicting conversion rate (CVR) is essential in various recommendation domains such as online advertising systems and e-commerce. These systems utilize user interaction logs, which consist of exposures, clicks, and conversions. CVR prediction models are typically trained solely based on clicked samples, as conversions can only be determined following clicks. However, the sparsity of clicked instances necessitates the collection of a substantial amount of logs for effective model training. Recent works address this issue by devising frameworks that leverage non-clicked samples. While these frameworks aim to reduce biases caused by the discrepancy between clicked and non-clicked samples, they often rely on heuristics. Against this background, we propose a method to counterfactually generate conversion labels for non-clicked samples by using causality as a guiding principle, attempting to answer the question, "Would the user have converted if he or she had clicked the recommended item?" Our approach is named the Entire Space Counterfactual Inference Multi-task Model (ESCIM). We initially train a structural causal model (SCM) of user sequential behaviors and conduct a hypothetical intervention (i.e., click) on non-clicked items to infer counterfactual CVRs. We then introduce several approaches to transform predicted counterfactual CVRs into binary counterfactual conversion labels for the non-clicked samples. Finally, the generated samples are incorporated into the training process. Extensive experiments on public datasets illustrate the superiority of the proposed algorithm. Online A/B testing further empirically validates the effectiveness of our proposed algorithm in real-world scenarios. In addition, we demonstrate the improved performance of the proposed method on latent conversion data, showcasing its robustness and superior generalization capabilities.

We present counterfactual planning as a design approach for creating a range of safety mechanisms that can be applied in hypothetical future AI systems which have Artificial General Intelligence. The key step in counterfactual planning is to use an AGI machine learning system to construct a counterfactual world model, designed to be different from the real world the system is in. A counterfactual planning agent determines the action that best maximizes expected utility in this counterfactual planning world, and then performs the same action in the real world. We use counterfactual planning to construct an AGI agent emergency stop button, and a safety interlock that will automatically stop the agent before it undergoes an intelligence explosion. We also construct an agent with an input terminal that can be used by humans to iteratively improve the agent's reward function, where the incentive for the agent to manipulate this improvement process is suppressed. As an example of counterfactual planning in a non-agent AGI system, we construct a counterfactual oracle. As a design approach, counterfactual planning is built around the use of a graphical notation for defining mathematical counterfactuals. This two-diagram notation also provides a compact and readable language for reasoning about the complex types of self-referencing and indirect representation which are typically present inside machine learning agents.

Visual counterfactual explanation (CF) methods modify image concepts, e.g, shape, to change a prediction to a predefined outcome while closely resembling the original query image. Unlike self-explainable models (SEMs) and heatmap techniques, they grant users the ability to examine hypothetical "what-if" scenarios. Previous CF methods either entail post-hoc training, limiting the balance between transparency and CF quality, or demand optimization during inference. To bridge the gap between transparent SEMs and CF methods, we introduce the GdVAE, a self-explainable model based on a conditional variational autoencoder (CVAE), featuring a Gaussian discriminant analysis (GDA) classifier and integrated CF explanations. Full transparency is achieved through a generative classifier that leverages class-specific prototypes for the downstream task and a closed-form solution for CFs in the latent space. The consistency of CFs is improved by regularizing the latent space with the explainer function. Extensive comparisons with existing approaches affirm the effectiveness of our method in producing high-quality CF explanations while preserving transparency. Code and models are public.

Video prediction is increasingly viewed as a path toward generalizable world models, yet it remains unclear whether these systems learn underlying causal structure or merely exploit superficial visual correlations for future prediction. We introduce CRONOS, an intervention-based benchmark designed to evaluate counterfactual physical consistency: whether a model's predictions of physical events respond appropriately to controlled changes in the visual input, such as variations of scene context, viewpoint, object appearance, and object category. Built in a photorealistic Unreal Engine environment, CRONOS enables controlled, high-fidelity generation of videos across diverse scenes and dynamics. In contrast to previous benchmarks, CRONOS systematically intervenes on four key factors - viewpoint, scene, object category, and object appearance - while keeping the underlying physical event type, such as a collision, occlusion, or fall, fixed. Our evaluation of recent open-source video generators reveals substantial failures in counterfactual physical consistency: prediction quality for the same physical event type is affected by appearance, environment, and, particularly by viewpoint changes. CRONOS provides a controlled and reproducible testbed for diagnosing how the quality of generated videos changes for different interventions, establishing a concrete target for developing models that perform consistently across changes of multiple conditions. The dataset and code are available at our project page.

Humans imagine scene changes under hypothetical motions, an ability central to spatial reasoning and robotic planning. However, this capability remains underexplored in vision-language models and world models. We formalize this capability as Counterfactual Spatial Imagination (CSI) and introduce FlowBench, a resource for training and evaluating both, with 428K training examples spanning simulated and real-world scenes, household environments and tabletop manipulation, and diverse question types. A scalable, fully automatic pipeline pairs each hypothetical motion with spatial questions and, in simulation, exact outcome frames and optical flow. For VLMs, proprietary models exhibit an imagination gap, performing worse when motion outcomes must be inferred than when observed, and open-source models perform near chance; fine-tuning Qwen3-VL-8B on FlowBench-Sim-Train raises its accuracy by 29.5 percentage points in simulation and 16.9 on real images, a strong sim-to-real transfer. For world models, training on FlowBench-Sim improves text-to-flow prediction for all four model families we test, raising the accuracy of Psi-0.6 from 52.1% to 61.7%. FlowBench thus serves as a training and evaluation resource for both. Code and datasets are released at https://github.com/liuyifan22/FlowBench.

Understanding and manipulating the causal generation mechanisms in language models is essential for controlling their behavior. Previous work has primarily relied on techniques such as representation surgery -- e.g., model ablations or manipulation of linear subspaces tied to specific concepts -- to intervene on these models. To understand the impact of interventions precisely, it is useful to examine counterfactuals -- e.g., how a given sentence would have appeared had it been generated by the model following a specific intervention. We highlight that counterfactual reasoning is conceptually distinct from interventions, as articulated in Pearl's causal hierarchy. Based on this observation, we propose a framework for generating true string counterfactuals by reformulating language models as Generalized Structural-equation. Models using the Gumbel-max trick. This allows us to model the joint distribution over original strings and their counterfactuals resulting from the same instantiation of the sampling noise. We develop an algorithm based on hindsight Gumbel sampling that allows us to infer the latent noise variables and generate counterfactuals of observed strings. Our experiments demonstrate that the approach produces meaningful counterfactuals while at the same time showing that commonly used intervention techniques have considerable undesired side effects.

Self-improving AI agents are designed to learn from their mistakes. We show they can also hallucinate mistakes that never happened. We study this failure mode in automated harness optimization, where an LLM-based proposer edits an agent's scaffold, including prompts, parsers, filters, validators and guardrails, to eliminate observed failures. But this process rarely asks first: was there a real failure to fix? We introduce the Counterfactual Fabrication Lab, a deterministic micro-lab where the correct action is known: do nothing. The lab plants a candidate guardrail for a failure class that provably never occurs, presents only legal episodes, and uses a byte-exact oracle to check every cited violation. The proposer behaves as expected on real violations and abstains on featureless legal input. Yet when the legal input contains a harmless pattern resembling a familiar game rule, it invents a failure: in 15/60 runs, versus 0/60 on featureless input, it enables the nonexistent-rule guardrail and cites a violation the oracle refutes. The effect is structured, not indiscriminate. In single-shot proposals it appears only when three conditions coincide: a rule-shaped pattern, an open-ended rule set and an instruction that presupposes failures. Removing any of these conditions eliminates the fabrication. Because the invented guardrail changes no true outcome and cannot improve an already-perfect suppression score, the phenomenon is neither reward hacking nor over-refusal. It is a phantom guardrail: a fix for a failure that never happened, invisible to suppression-only acceptance. Inside an add-only accept loop it re-enters even without the failure-presupposing instruction, the loop's keep-adding role supplying the demand the instruction supplied in single shot, and once in it stays. We present the Counterfactual Fabrication Lab for measuring fabricated failures in self-improving agent harnesses.

Diffusion models can generate realistic videos, but existing methods rely on implicitly learning physical reasoning from large-scale text-video datasets, which is costly, difficult to scale, and still prone to producing implausible motions that violate fundamental physical laws. We introduce a training-free framework that improves physical plausibility at inference time by explicitly reasoning about implausibility and guiding the generation away from it. Specifically, we employ a lightweight physics-aware reasoning pipeline to construct counterfactual prompts that deliberately encode physics-violating behaviors. Then, we propose a novel Synchronized Decoupled Guidance (SDG) strategy, which leverages these prompts through synchronized directional normalization to counteract lagged suppression and trajectory-decoupled denoising to mitigate cumulative trajectory bias, ensuring that implausible content is suppressed immediately and consistently throughout denoising. Experiments across different physical domains show that our approach substantially enhances physical fidelity while maintaining photorealism, despite requiring no additional training. Ablation studies confirm the complementary effectiveness of both the physics-aware reasoning component and SDG. In particular, the aforementioned two designs of SDG are also individually validated to contribute critically to the suppression of implausible content and the overall gains in physical plausibility. This establishes a new and plug-and-play physics-aware paradigm for video generation.

Modern image editing models can satisfy a text instruction while breaking the physics of the edited scene. A new object may cast no shadow, a mirror may fail to reflect visible geometry, or an object may float above a surface that should support it. We study physical plausibility diagnosis, detecting whether an edited image violates scene physics, naming the violation type, localizing the affected region, and explaining the failure in language. We introduce a counterfactual benchmark whose controlled synthetic component uses Mitsuba~3 to generate 5,500 images from 500 scene families. Each family contains one clean image and ten matched violations involving shadows, reflection, support, surface response, and occlusion. The renderer pipeline provides category labels, affected-region masks and boxes, scene metadata, and explanation targets. We use LLaVA-1.5-7B, Qwen2.5-VL-7B, and InternVL3.5-8B as diagnostic baselines rather than proposed methods. On a 1,650-image synthetic test set, the adapted baselines reach 64.0--67.8\% category macro-F1 on standard held-out scenes. For LLaVA-1.5-7B, category macro-F1 falls from 64.0\% on the standard split to 40.8\% under intervention shift. This gap shows that high in-distribution accuracy partly reflects cues tied to rendering and counterfactual construction.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are now increasingly widely used to simulate personas in virtual environments, leveraging their instruction-following capability. However, we discovered that even state-of-the-art LLMs cannot simulate personas with reversed performance (e.g., student personas with low proficiency in educational settings), which impairs the simulation diversity and limits the practical applications of the simulated environments. In this work, using mathematical reasoning as a representative scenario, we propose the first benchmark dataset for evaluating LLMs on simulating personas with reversed performance, a capability that we dub "counterfactual instruction following". We evaluate both open-weight and closed-source LLMs on this task and find that LLMs, including the OpenAI o1 reasoning model, all struggle to follow counterfactual instructions for simulating reversedly performing personas. Intersectionally simulating both the performance level and the race population of a persona worsens the effect even further. These results highlight the challenges of counterfactual instruction following and the need for further research.

Evaluation of counterfactual queries (e.g., "If A were true, would C have been true?") is important to fault diagnosis, planning, determination of liability, and policy analysis. We present a method of revaluating counterfactuals when the underlying causal model is represented by structural models - a nonlinear generalization of the simultaneous equations models commonly used in econometrics and social sciences. This new method provides a coherent means for evaluating policies involving the control of variables which, prior to enacting the policy were influenced by other variables in the system.

We provide an optimization-based framework to perform counterfactual analysis in a dynamic model with hidden states. Our framework is grounded in the ``abduction, action, and prediction'' approach to answer counterfactual queries and handles two key challenges where (1) the states are hidden and (2) the model is dynamic. Recognizing the lack of knowledge on the underlying causal mechanism and the possibility of infinitely many such mechanisms, we optimize over this space and compute upper and lower bounds on the counterfactual quantity of interest. Our work brings together ideas from causality, state-space models, simulation, and optimization, and we apply it on a breast cancer case study. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to compute lower and upper bounds on a counterfactual query in a dynamic latent-state model.

While state-of-the-art NLP models have been achieving the excellent performance of a wide range of tasks in recent years, important questions are being raised about their robustness and their underlying sensitivity to systematic biases that may exist in their training and test data. Such issues come to be manifest in performance problems when faced with out-of-distribution data in the field. One recent solution has been to use counterfactually augmented datasets in order to reduce any reliance on spurious patterns that may exist in the original data. Producing high-quality augmented data can be costly and time-consuming as it usually needs to involve human feedback and crowdsourcing efforts. In this work, we propose an alternative by describing and evaluating an approach to automatically generating counterfactual data for data augmentation and explanation. A comprehensive evaluation on several different datasets and using a variety of state-of-the-art benchmarks demonstrate how our approach can achieve significant improvements in model performance when compared to models training on the original data and even when compared to models trained with the benefit of human-generated augmented data.

We study causal logistic bandits with counterfactual fairness constraints. The causal structure is given through known factual and counterfactual feature maps that share an unknown logistic reward parameter, but the learner observes only factual rewards. Consequently, the directions determining counterfactual feasibility need not be identifiable from the available feedback. The closest prior analyses either omit a coverage condition or impose a comparatively strong one, and do not establish matching lower bounds. We first show that some coverage condition is necessary: without a coverage-type restriction, factually indistinguishable environments with different optimal fair actions force Ω(T) expected joint loss. Under a weaker full-rank condition on the factual covariance pooled across actions, we identify a target-specific information scale V_star that measures the difficulty of estimating rewards and counterfactual effects from factual feedback. We construct worst-case families satisfying this condition on which every policy incurs expected joint loss Ωleft(left[V_starmin{log K,d}right]^{1/3}T^{2/3}right). We also give an explore--then--exploit procedure tuned using V_star and an adaptive algorithm that does not require its value. Both algorithms achieve max{R_T,V_T}=Oleft(left[V_starmin{log K,d}right]^{1/3}T^{2/3}+κd/σ_0^2right), where R_T is regret relative to the best fair action and V_T denotes the cumulative stage-wise positive violations. Thus the upper and lower bounds match in their leading dependence on T, V_star, and min{log K,d}, up to logarithmic factors.

Vision-Language Models (VLMs) should answer from concrete image evidence rather than language priors, dataset shortcuts, or irrelevant visual context. Existing perception-aware post-training methods encourage image use through global perturbations or attention proxies, but they do not test whether a sampled answer causally depends on the local evidence that supports it. We propose Counterfactual Evidence Disentanglement (CED), a training-time evidence audit for VLM grounding. For each response, CED neutralizes an object-centric Evidence Region and compares the resulting support drop against matched non-evidence Regions. We combine this signal with answer correctness inside GRPO, rewarding correct answers that rely on the evidence path rather than shortcut or nuisance paths. CED uses weak object-level proposals, requires no question-specific evidence annotations, and adds no inference-time overhead. Across nine public benchmarks and four backbones, CED outperforms prior RL-based post-training methods, with targeted analyses verifying its object-centric signal.

Large language models (LLMs) are trained to imitate humans to explain human decisions. However, do LLMs explain themselves? Can they help humans build mental models of how LLMs process different inputs? To answer these questions, we propose to evaluate counterfactual simulatability of natural language explanations: whether an explanation can enable humans to precisely infer the model's outputs on diverse counterfactuals of the explained input. For example, if a model answers "yes" to the input question "Can eagles fly?" with the explanation "all birds can fly", then humans would infer from the explanation that it would also answer "yes" to the counterfactual input "Can penguins fly?". If the explanation is precise, then the model's answer should match humans' expectations. We implemented two metrics based on counterfactual simulatability: precision and generality. We generated diverse counterfactuals automatically using LLMs. We then used these metrics to evaluate state-of-the-art LLMs (e.g., GPT-4) on two tasks: multi-hop factual reasoning and reward modeling. We found that LLM's explanations have low precision and that precision does not correlate with plausibility. Therefore, naively optimizing human approvals (e.g., RLHF) may not be a sufficient solution.

We introduce Multi-Objective Counterfactuals for Design (MCD), a novel method for counterfactual optimization in design problems. Counterfactuals are hypothetical situations that can lead to a different decision or choice. In this paper, the authors frame the counterfactual search problem as a design recommendation tool that can help identify modifications to a design, leading to better functional performance. MCD improves upon existing counterfactual search methods by supporting multi-objective queries, which are crucial in design problems, and by decoupling the counterfactual search and sampling processes, thus enhancing efficiency and facilitating objective tradeoff visualization. The paper demonstrates MCD's core functionality using a two-dimensional test case, followed by three case studies of bicycle design that showcase MCD's effectiveness in real-world design problems. In the first case study, MCD excels at recommending modifications to query designs that can significantly enhance functional performance, such as weight savings and improvements to the structural safety factor. The second case study demonstrates that MCD can work with a pre-trained language model to suggest design changes based on a subjective text prompt effectively. Lastly, the authors task MCD with increasing a query design's similarity to a target image and text prompt while simultaneously reducing weight and improving structural performance, demonstrating MCD's performance on a complex multimodal query. Overall, MCD has the potential to provide valuable recommendations for practitioners and design automation researchers looking for answers to their ``What if'' questions by exploring hypothetical design modifications and their impact on multiple design objectives. The code, test problems, and datasets used in the paper are available to the public at decode.mit.edu/projects/counterfactuals/.

Modern Visual Question Answering (VQA) models often exploit spurious correlations in training data, leading to poor out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization due to language bias. Although counterfactual learning has shown promise, existing methods can be improved to better guide attention toward causal evidence and strengthen feature discrimination. To address this, we propose a novel training framework that enhances counterfactual contrastive learning for VQA. Our framework introduces three key contributions: (1) a three-stage curriculum for stable multi-objective optimization, (2) an enhanced Batch-Contrastive loss for more discriminative feature learning, and (3) two novel regularizers, Answer-Contrastive (AC) loss to refine the prediction space and Gradient-Discrepancy (GD) loss to enforce causal visual grounding. Our model achieves a competitive accuracy of 61.64% on the bias-sensitive VQA-CP v2 benchmark while maintaining 62.80% on the standard VQA v2 dataset, yielding a small generalization gap of 1.16%. This demonstrates a strong balance between OOD robustness and in-distribution performance.

While counterfactual examples are useful for analysis and training of NLP models, current generation methods either rely on manual labor to create very few counterfactuals, or only instantiate limited types of perturbations such as paraphrases or word substitutions. We present Polyjuice, a general-purpose counterfactual generator that allows for control over perturbation types and locations, trained by finetuning GPT-2 on multiple datasets of paired sentences. We show that Polyjuice produces diverse sets of realistic counterfactuals, which in turn are useful in various distinct applications: improving training and evaluation on three different tasks (with around 70% less annotation effort than manual generation), augmenting state-of-the-art explanation techniques, and supporting systematic counterfactual error analysis by revealing behaviors easily missed by human experts.

As Reinforcement Learning (RL) agents are increasingly employed in diverse decision-making problems using reward preferences, it becomes important to ensure that policies learned by these frameworks in mapping observations to a probability distribution of the possible actions are explainable. However, there is little to no work in the systematic understanding of these complex policies in a contrastive manner, i.e., what minimal changes to the policy would improve/worsen its performance to a desired level. In this work, we present COUNTERPOL, the first framework to analyze RL policies using counterfactual explanations in the form of minimal changes to the policy that lead to the desired outcome. We do so by incorporating counterfactuals in supervised learning in RL with the target outcome regulated using desired return. We establish a theoretical connection between Counterpol and widely used trust region-based policy optimization methods in RL. Extensive empirical analysis shows the efficacy of COUNTERPOL in generating explanations for (un)learning skills while keeping close to the original policy. Our results on five different RL environments with diverse state and action spaces demonstrate the utility of counterfactual explanations, paving the way for new frontiers in designing and developing counterfactual policies.

Robot world models support policy evaluation, planning, and synthetic data generation, but these applications require predictions that distinguish successful actions from failures. Across four released checkpoints from two architecture families, we observe weak sensitivity to action changes and success-like predictions on verified failures. Although recent work incorporates failures into model training, which data can repair released checkpoints without changing their architecture or training objective still remains underexplored. To this end, we introduce CureWM, which constructs alternative actions from successful demonstrations across a severity grid, verifies their outcomes through execution in simulation or on hardware, and fine-tunes released models on the resulting failures and surviving successes alongside nominal demonstrations. This construction provides controlled action contrasts from shared starting contexts. On 484 held-out LIBERO failure counterfactuals, optimism falls from 80\% after fine-tuning on the official data to 30--43\% across four independently fine-tuned CureWM models (38\% mean). In two separate evaluations on a physical robot arm, failure predictions scored as success-like by a latent-distance diagnostic decrease from 90\% after fine-tuning on successful demonstrations alone to 33\% with CureWM. With failure counts per task, successful replay data, and training budget matched, counterfactual failures yield a success--failure value gap of 0.124, compared with 0.014 for freshly collected on-policy failures. These findings support execution-verified counterfactual replay for post-hoc repair and show why reduced optimism must be evaluated alongside success--failure discrimination. Code is available at https://github.com/jiuyixu25/CureWM.

Deploying a new decision policy creates a cold-start problem for prediction models whose targets depend on the policy's actions: historical observations reflect earlier policies, while real observations under the new policy are not yet available. Simulation offers a way to address this gap by rolling out the target policy across counterfactual scenarios and using the resulting trajectories to learn how the system responds to those controls. The simulation-to-reality (Sim2Real) transfer of this simulator-trained model can then be backtested by evaluating it against real observations from past deployments. Using two real-world inventory-control deployments, we evaluate this process from three angles: simulator fidelity, zero-shot transfer to real behavior, and adaptation as real target-policy observations accumulate. The simulator-trained forecaster achieves lower point-estimate mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) than the same architecture trained on historical real data, reducing MAPE by 1.2-3.1 percentage points in Study 1 and 12.5-18.7 points in Study 2. After deployment, lightweight calibration using early real observations further reduces error by up to 2.5 percentage points. These results provide empirical evidence that simulator-generated counterfactual data can support cold-start forecasting under a new policy, and the resulting model can be further refined as real deployment data become available.

Models driven by spurious correlations often yield poor generalization performance. We propose the counterfactual (CF) alignment method to detect and quantify spurious correlations of black box classifiers. Our methodology is based on counterfactual images generated with respect to one classifier being input into other classifiers to see if they also induce changes in the outputs of these classifiers. The relationship between these responses can be quantified and used to identify specific instances where a spurious correlation exists. This is validated by observing intuitive trends in face-attribute and waterbird classifiers, as well as by fabricating spurious correlations and detecting their presence, both visually and quantitatively. Furthermore, utilizing the CF alignment method, we demonstrate that we can evaluate robust optimization methods (GroupDRO, JTT, and FLAC) by detecting a reduction in spurious correlations.

In this work, we develop a technique to produce counterfactual visual explanations. Given a 'query' image I for which a vision system predicts class c, a counterfactual visual explanation identifies how I could change such that the system would output a different specified class c'. To do this, we select a 'distractor' image I' that the system predicts as class c' and identify spatial regions in I and I' such that replacing the identified region in I with the identified region in I' would push the system towards classifying I as c'. We apply our approach to multiple image classification datasets generating qualitative results showcasing the interpretability and discriminativeness of our counterfactual explanations. To explore the effectiveness of our explanations in teaching humans, we present machine teaching experiments for the task of fine-grained bird classification. We find that users trained to distinguish bird species fare better when given access to counterfactual explanations in addition to training examples.

As machine learning models evolve, maintaining transparency demands more human-centric explainable AI techniques. Counterfactual explanations, with roots in human reasoning, identify the minimal input changes needed to obtain a given output and, hence, are crucial for supporting decision-making. Despite their importance, the evaluation of these explanations often lacks grounding in user studies and remains fragmented, with existing metrics not fully capturing human perspectives. To address this challenge, we developed a diverse set of 30 counterfactual scenarios and collected ratings across 8 evaluation metrics from 206 respondents. Subsequently, we fine-tuned different Large Language Models (LLMs) to predict average or individual human judgment across these metrics. Our methodology allowed LLMs to achieve an accuracy of up to 63% in zero-shot evaluations and 85% (over a 3-classes prediction) with fine-tuning across all metrics. The fine-tuned models predicting human ratings offer better comparability and scalability in evaluating different counterfactual explanation frameworks.

Counterfactual reasoning is widely recognized as one of the most challenging and intricate aspects of causality in artificial intelligence. In this paper, we evaluate the performance of large language models (LLMs) in counterfactual reasoning. In contrast to previous studies that primarily focus on commonsense causal reasoning, where LLMs often rely on prior knowledge for inference, we specifically assess their ability to perform counterfactual inference using a set of formal rules. To support this evaluation, we introduce a new benchmark dataset, CounterBench, comprising 1K counterfactual reasoning questions. The dataset is designed with varying levels of difficulty, diverse causal graph structures, distinct types of counterfactual questions, and multiple nonsensical name variants. Our experiments demonstrate that counterfactual reasoning poses a significant challenge for LLMs, with most models performing at levels comparable to random guessing. To enhance LLM's counterfactual reasoning ability, we propose a novel reasoning paradigm, CoIn, which guides LLMs through iterative reasoning and backtracking to systematically explore counterfactual solutions. Experimental results show that our method significantly improves LLM performance on counterfactual reasoning tasks and consistently enhances performance across different LLMs.Our dataset is available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/CounterBench/CounterBench.

Many areas of AI research, such as language model interpretability and chain of thought faithfulness, seek to explain model behaviors. But what constitutes a "good" explanation? In this work, we evaluate explanations through the lens of counterfactual simulatability-whether the explanation is useful for predicting model behaviors on related counterfactual inputs. To this end, we introduce CHIVE (Counterfactual Hypothesis Investigation Via Edits), a novel agentic pipeline that identifies unexpected model behaviors in the wild and investigates them with counterfactual prompt edits. This yields thousands of high-quality explanations for naturally-occurring model behaviors along with supporting counterfactual evidence. We apply CHIVE in two ways. First, we evaluate whether common LLM interpretability techniques improve an agent's ability to predict counterfactual model behaviors. Surprisingly, we find no uplift from any of the interpretability techniques studied. Second, we use CHIVE to generate training data. We find that training models to predict outcomes of CHIVE-generated counterfactual experiments generalizes to various out-of-distribution settings. Overall, CHIVE automatically discovers explanations of naturally-occurring LLM behaviors, enabling us to evaluate and improve methods for explaining LLM behaviors.

Large language models often solve a theorem forward yet fail to disprove a closely related false one: a falsification gap that supervised fine-tuning does not close and can actively worsen. We frame counterexample generation as constrained witness emission against a deterministic per-theorem Python verifier, and release SymCE, a corpus of 4,707 false undergraduate-algebra and real-analysis conjectures, each paired with executable verifiers. The verifier also serves as the reward function, making SymCE a training environment. Training Qwen3-4B with SFT followed by GRPO under this oracle reveals an imitation trap: counterexample-only SFT collapses true-theorem recognition from 0.27 to 0.00, while RLVR with a sparse outcome-only reward repairs this and exceeds the base, to 0.66. The collapse replicates across four seeds and on Gemma-3-4B. Sparse and dense rewards yield statistically indistinguishable in-domain success yet diverge by 33 points on a held-out calibration probe, a dissociation we trace to the partial-credit term. Our 4B model outperforms every evaluated 7B open-weights math specialist, remains competitive with six frontier commercial APIs, and transfers under unchanged prompting to GSM8K, MATH-500 and MMLU-college-math. A human audit of 177 verifier decisions finds 97.7% accuracy. Code, data, verifier modules and annotations: https://github.com/ce-rlvr/SymCE.

Counterfactual inference in Gaussian-process structural causal models (GP-SCMs) has been developed primarily for continuous endogenous variables, limiting applicability to causal graphs that contain discrete child nodes with continuous parents. We introduce a unified probabilistic framework for counterfactual inference with heterogeneous variable types by pairing GP predictors with explicit exogenous noise mechanisms. For discrete outcomes, we derive exact conditional noise-abduction procedures using a uniform threshold for binary variables, a Gumbel-max race for nominal categories, and a latent Gaussian cut-point model for ordinal ones. In each case, we propagate abducted noise through interventions while accounting for posterior uncertainty in the GP latent functions, and prove that the resulting mechanisms reproduce the fitted model's observational and interventional distributions. On synthetic SCMs with known ground-truth counterfactuals, we evaluate estimation accuracy, consistency, and robustness to coupling misspecification. A key finding is that applying a categorical coupling to ordinal data inflates counterfactual error roughly threefold even when observational fit remains comparable, and that this error does not diminish with more data. As the training set grows, the fitted structural equation converges to the truth while the counterfactual error flattens onto a floor. In the reverse direction, forcing a false order onto nominal data instead degrades the fitted equation itself. The choice of coupling must therefore be justified on structural grounds rather than read off the fit.

Counterfactual explanations and adversarial attacks have a related goal: flipping output labels with minimal perturbations regardless of their characteristics. Yet, adversarial attacks cannot be used directly in a counterfactual explanation perspective, as such perturbations are perceived as noise and not as actionable and understandable image modifications. Building on the robust learning literature, this paper proposes an elegant method to turn adversarial attacks into semantically meaningful perturbations, without modifying the classifiers to explain. The proposed approach hypothesizes that Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models are excellent regularizers for avoiding high-frequency and out-of-distribution perturbations when generating adversarial attacks. The paper's key idea is to build attacks through a diffusion model to polish them. This allows studying the target model regardless of its robustification level. Extensive experimentation shows the advantages of our counterfactual explanation approach over current State-of-the-Art in multiple testbeds.

Counterfactual statements, which describe events that did not or cannot take place, are beneficial to numerous NLP applications. Hence, we consider the problem of counterfactual detection (CFD) and seek to enhance the CFD models. Previous models are reliant on clue phrases to predict counterfactuality, so they suffer from significant performance drop when clue phrase hints do not exist during testing. Moreover, these models tend to predict non-counterfactuals over counterfactuals. To address these issues, we propose to integrate neural topic model into the CFD model to capture the global semantics of the input statement. We continue to causally intervene the hidden representations of the CFD model to balance the effect of the class labels. Extensive experiments show that our approach outperforms previous state-of-the-art CFD and bias-resolving methods in both the CFD and other bias-sensitive tasks.

Open-loop imitation learning has advanced modern autonomous driving policy architectures, but closed-loop deployment remains vulnerable to policy-induced distribution shift. Existing post-training paradigms exhibit fundamental trade-offs: closed-loop RL fine-tuning provides grounded feedback from executed actions but is constrained by the sparsity of informative events, whereas counterfactual fine-tuning provides dense supervision over candidate futures but inherits bias from imperfect future estimates. We introduce Counterfactual-to-Interactive Reinforcement Fine-Tuning (CRAFT), an on-policy framework that formulates closed-loop post-training as proxy-residual optimization. CRAFT uses group-normalized counterfactual advantages as a dense proxy for real closed-loop advantages and aligns this proxy with the closed-loop world through grounded residual correction from interaction-critical events. To stabilize adaptation, CRAFT regularizes the online policy toward an EMA teacher via asymmetric KL self-distillation. Theoretically, CRAFT decomposes the real closed-loop policy gradient into proxy and residual terms under the same visited-state distribution, reducing residual variance with an aligned proxy while mitigating proxy bias through grounded residual approximation. Empirically, CRAFT achieves the strongest closed-loop gains on Bench2Drive across hierarchical planning, vision-language-action, and vocabulary-scoring architectures. Ablations, scaling behavior, stability analyses, and transfer results further validate the complementary roles of dense counterfactual proxy and grounded residual correction. Project page: https://currychen77.github.io/CRAFT.

Procedural planning, which entails decomposing a high-level goal into a sequence of temporally ordered steps, is an important yet intricate task for machines. It involves integrating common-sense knowledge to reason about complex contextualized situations that are often counterfactual, e.g. "scheduling a doctor's appointment without a phone". While current approaches show encouraging results using large language models (LLMs), they are hindered by drawbacks such as costly API calls and reproducibility issues. In this paper, we advocate planning using smaller language models. We present PlaSma, a novel two-pronged approach to endow small language models with procedural knowledge and (counterfactual) planning capabilities. More concretely, we develop symbolic procedural knowledge distillation to enhance the implicit knowledge in small language models and an inference-time algorithm to facilitate more structured and accurate reasoning. In addition, we introduce a novel task, Counterfactual Planning, that requires a revision of a plan to cope with a counterfactual situation. In both the original and counterfactual setting, we show that orders-of-magnitude smaller models (770M-11B parameters) can compete and often surpass their larger teacher models' capabilities.

Counterfactual examples have proven to be valuable in the field of natural language processing (NLP) for both evaluating and improving the robustness of language models to spurious correlations in datasets. Despite their demonstrated utility for NLP, multimodal counterfactual examples have been relatively unexplored due to the difficulty of creating paired image-text data with minimal counterfactual changes. To address this challenge, we introduce a scalable framework for automatic generation of counterfactual examples using text-to-image diffusion models. We use our framework to create COCO-Counterfactuals, a multimodal counterfactual dataset of paired image and text captions based on the MS-COCO dataset. We validate the quality of COCO-Counterfactuals through human evaluations and show that existing multimodal models are challenged by our counterfactual image-text pairs. Additionally, we demonstrate the usefulness of COCO-Counterfactuals for improving out-of-domain generalization of multimodal vision-language models via training data augmentation.

Counterfactual reasoning requires predicting how alternative events, contrary to what actually happened, might have resulted in different outcomes. Despite being considered a necessary component of AI-complete systems, few resources have been developed for evaluating counterfactual reasoning in narratives. In this paper, we propose Counterfactual Story Rewriting: given an original story and an intervening counterfactual event, the task is to minimally revise the story to make it compatible with the given counterfactual event. Solving this task will require deep understanding of causal narrative chains and counterfactual invariance, and integration of such story reasoning capabilities into conditional language generation models. We present TimeTravel, a new dataset of 29,849 counterfactual rewritings, each with the original story, a counterfactual event, and human-generated revision of the original story compatible with the counterfactual event. Additionally, we include 80,115 counterfactual "branches" without a rewritten storyline to support future work on semi- or un-supervised approaches to counterfactual story rewriting. Finally, we evaluate the counterfactual rewriting capacities of several competitive baselines based on pretrained language models, and assess whether common overlap and model-based automatic metrics for text generation correlate well with human scores for counterfactual rewriting.

Using offline datasets to evaluate conversational agents often fails to cover rare scenarios or to support testing new policies. This has motivated the use of controllable user simulators for targeted, counterfactual evaluation, typically implemented by prompting or fine-tuning large language models. In this work, we formalize controllable simulation as a causal inference problem. By bridging natural language evaluation with off-policy evaluation methodology, we show that the standard practice of training simulators via supervised fine-tuning on post-hoc trajectory labels yields a structurally biased model. Specifically, these labels are inextricably coupled to the data-generating behavior policy, injecting a look-ahead bias that breaks causal consistency. Furthermore, we prove that under policy shift this failure causes the variance of evaluation metrics to explode geometrically, a phenomenon we term controllability collapse. To restore causal consistency, we establish theoretical conditions for accurate simulation and propose practical training mitigations: a priori controls, step-wise dynamic controls, and direct policy-conditioned learning. Empirical evaluation confirms that while standard global controls distort conversational distributions and collapse behavioral diversity, our causally grounded simulators eliminate look-ahead bias, preserve natural variance, and exhibit robust zero-shot generalization to unseen agent behaviors.

Physical reasoning underpins how embodied systems understand and act in the physical world, yet vision-language models (VLMs) remain unreliable on questions about dynamics and physical causality. Progress is critically constrained by the scarcity of grounded counterfactual training data, as observational videos capture only the factual trajectory that occurred. The self-evolving paradigm offers a route beyond fixed datasets by enabling models to construct their own training problems. Extending this paradigm to physics, however, requires an external source of truth that can both validate model-proposed environments and verify alternative physical outcomes under intervention. We introduce , a verifier-grounded self-evolving framework that trains VLMs for causal physical reasoning from model-proposed executable worlds and simulation-authored tasks. At each round, a shared VLM proposes executable world programs and evidence schemas; a deterministic physics engine freezes each valid world, simulates matched baseline and body-elided counterfactual branches, and synthesizes discrete, answer-bound visual tasks. Exact verifier feedback from task solving updates both the shared policy via GRPO and an adaptive curriculum over physical intents. Starting from Qwen3-VL-8B-Instruct, achieves targeted gains across PhysBench, CausalPhys, and ContPhy without human intervention data, improving PhysBench Throwing by 8.8 points and ContPhy Counterfactual Removal and Goal-Pit by 7.4 and 24.4 points. These gains concentrate on interaction-sensitive and altered-world questions, demonstrating zero-shot transfer of causal principles to unseen complex dynamics (cloth, fluid, soft bodies) and real-world video.

Counterfactual explanations are most useful when they can be generated with low latency, remain close to the factual input, and satisfy input-domain, categorical, and actionability constraints. Achieving these objectives simultaneously is challenging for deep neural networks. Heuristic methods are often fast but may return invalid counterfactuals, whereas exact methods can certify global proximity but may not finish within practical time limits. We introduce DASH, a batched heuristic search method for finding close, valid, and actionable counterfactuals for deep neural networks under ell_1, ell_2, and ell_infty objectives. DASH uses directional Lipschitz bounds and local affine models to generate anchors, then ranks and expands promising regions with batched network evaluations. We compare DASH against nine prior heuristic methods and time-limited exact mixed-integer baselines on four tabular datasets, with network depths from 2 to 32, and evaluate scalability on PBMC3k. Across 9,000 tabular query-norm cases, DASH returns a valid counterfactual within 5% of the best heuristic-observed valid distance in 94.6% of cases, with a median CPU search runtime of 0.061 s. PGD-bisect, the baseline with the highest pooled within-5% coverage, meets this criterion in 41.1% of cases, with a median runtime of 0.298 s. These results show that the proposed search maintains high valid proximity across norms while keeping its search runtime practical.

Counterfactual image generation presents significant challenges, including preserving identity, maintaining perceptual quality, and ensuring faithfulness to an underlying causal model. While existing auto-encoding frameworks admit semantic latent spaces which can be manipulated for causal control, they struggle with scalability and fidelity. Advancements in diffusion models present opportunities for improving counterfactual image editing, having demonstrated state-of-the-art visual quality, human-aligned perception and representation learning capabilities. Here, we present a suite of diffusion-based causal mechanisms, introducing the notions of spatial, semantic and dynamic abduction. We propose a general framework that integrates semantic representations into diffusion models through the lens of Pearlian causality to edit images via a counterfactual reasoning process. To our knowledge, this is the first work to consider high-level semantic identity preservation for diffusion counterfactuals and to demonstrate how semantic control enables principled trade-offs between faithful causal control and identity preservation.

Counterfactual statements describe events that did not or cannot take place. We consider the problem of counterfactual detection (CFD) in product reviews. For this purpose, we annotate a multilingual CFD dataset from Amazon product reviews covering counterfactual statements written in English, German, and Japanese languages. The dataset is unique as it contains counterfactuals in multiple languages, covers a new application area of e-commerce reviews, and provides high quality professional annotations. We train CFD models using different text representation methods and classifiers. We find that these models are robust against the selectional biases introduced due to cue phrase-based sentence selection. Moreover, our CFD dataset is compatible with prior datasets and can be merged to learn accurate CFD models. Applying machine translation on English counterfactual examples to create multilingual data performs poorly, demonstrating the language-specificity of this problem, which has been ignored so far.

The ability to understand physical dynamics is critical for agents to act in the world. Here, we use Counterfactual World Modeling (CWM) to extract vision structures for dynamics understanding. CWM uses a temporally-factored masking policy for masked prediction of video data without annotations. This policy enables highly effective "counterfactual prompting" of the predictor, allowing a spectrum of visual structures to be extracted from a single pre-trained predictor without finetuning on annotated datasets. We demonstrate that these structures are useful for physical dynamics understanding, allowing CWM to achieve the state-of-the-art performance on the Physion benchmark.

A common assumption holds that enough observational and interventional data, given to a strong enough predictor, suffices. We report a failure mode that contradicts it. Across hundreds of structural causal models, on identified quantities a strong predictor and a Bayesian baseline both succeed, but on unidentified quantities (the couplings between counterfactual worlds) the predictor collapses to a point, on 28% of models to one no valid model can produce, while the truth is an admissible interval more data never narrows. The gap is structural: prediction cannot represent uncertainty over counterfactual couplings. We cast a world model as a single positive semidefinite coupling kernel K(T,T') over admissible worlds, whose diagonal is the ordinary posterior (what a predictor recovers) and whose off-diagonal is the cross-world coupling it cannot, which every counterfactual reads. The paper is the theory of that off-diagonal. It is real: two states with identical posteriors differ on a cross-world query, and the off-diagonal is the coupling that fixes counterfactuals. It can be bounded: positive semidefiniteness is partial-identifying information the marginals lack, and enforcing it bounds counterfactuals in polynomial time where the exact response-type program is intractable. Logical structure sharpens it: ontology axioms tighten the bound by up to a third, propagating to couplings they never touch. It can be acquired: targeted scars, constraints learned from encountered infeasibilities, close the gap several times faster than untargeted ones. Its full reconstruction is approximate counting of the admissible worlds, tractable below the Sly-Sun threshold and inapproximable above; we do not claim to beat the worst case.

Causal explanations of the predictions of NLP systems are essential to ensure safety and establish trust. Yet, existing methods often fall short of explaining model predictions effectively or efficiently and are often model-specific. In this paper, we address model-agnostic explanations, proposing two approaches for counterfactual (CF) approximation. The first approach is CF generation, where a large language model (LLM) is prompted to change a specific text concept while keeping confounding concepts unchanged. While this approach is demonstrated to be very effective, applying LLM at inference-time is costly. We hence present a second approach based on matching, and propose a method that is guided by an LLM at training-time and learns a dedicated embedding space. This space is faithful to a given causal graph and effectively serves to identify matches that approximate CFs. After showing theoretically that approximating CFs is required in order to construct faithful explanations, we benchmark our approaches and explain several models, including LLMs with billions of parameters. Our empirical results demonstrate the excellent performance of CF generation models as model-agnostic explainers. Moreover, our matching approach, which requires far less test-time resources, also provides effective explanations, surpassing many baselines. We also find that Top-K techniques universally improve every tested method. Finally, we showcase the potential of LLMs in constructing new benchmarks for model explanation and subsequently validate our conclusions. Our work illuminates new pathways for efficient and accurate approaches to interpreting NLP systems.

Diffusion probabilistic models (DPMs) have become the state-of-the-art in high-quality image generation. However, DPMs have an arbitrary noisy latent space with no interpretable or controllable semantics. Although there has been significant research effort to improve image sample quality, there is little work on representation-controlled generation using diffusion models. Specifically, causal modeling and controllable counterfactual generation using DPMs is an underexplored area. In this work, we propose CausalDiffAE, a diffusion-based causal representation learning framework to enable counterfactual generation according to a specified causal model. Our key idea is to use an encoder to extract high-level semantically meaningful causal variables from high-dimensional data and model stochastic variation using reverse diffusion. We propose a causal encoding mechanism that maps high-dimensional data to causally related latent factors and parameterize the causal mechanisms among latent factors using neural networks. To enforce the disentanglement of causal variables, we formulate a variational objective and leverage auxiliary label information in a prior to regularize the latent space. We propose a DDIM-based counterfactual generation procedure subject to do-interventions. Finally, to address the limited label supervision scenario, we also study the application of CausalDiffAE when a part of the training data is unlabeled, which also enables granular control over the strength of interventions in generating counterfactuals during inference. We empirically show that CausalDiffAE learns a disentangled latent space and is capable of generating high-quality counterfactual images.

Chart question-answering (QA) benchmarks aim to pose questions that require visual reasoning to correctly answer, but models can often reach solutions through shortcuts or prior familiarity with a chart based on their own background knowledge. To strictly evaluate visual reasoning, we propose counterfactual charts where the chart-question task remains fixed, but underlying chart and the corresponding answer are varied. We introduce Chartographer, a framework to reverse engineer charts into executable code, validate reconstruction fidelity, generate seed-controlled counterfactual variants, and derive new answers from executable QA logic. We apply this framework to existing chart QA datasets and evaluate proprietary and open-source vision-language models (VLMs), measuring variation sensitivity and generalizability. Counterfactual charts reveal failures hidden by single-chart performance: VLMs often fail to generalize after answering the original chart correctly. We find failures are most prevalent when updated charts require novel visual reasoning pathways.

Explainability methods for NLP systems encounter a version of the fundamental problem of causal inference: for a given ground-truth input text, we never truly observe the counterfactual texts necessary for isolating the causal effects of model representations on outputs. In response, many explainability methods make no use of counterfactual texts, assuming they will be unavailable. In this paper, we show that robust causal explainability methods can be created using approximate counterfactuals, which can be written by humans to approximate a specific counterfactual or simply sampled using metadata-guided heuristics. The core of our proposal is the Causal Proxy Model (CPM). A CPM explains a black-box model N because it is trained to have the same actual input/output behavior as N while creating neural representations that can be intervened upon to simulate the counterfactual input/output behavior of N. Furthermore, we show that the best CPM for N performs comparably to N in making factual predictions, which means that the CPM can simply replace N, leading to more explainable deployed models. Our code is available at https://github.com/frankaging/Causal-Proxy-Model.

Recent studies have shown the impressive efficacy of counterfactually augmented data (CAD) for reducing NLU models' reliance on spurious features and improving their generalizability. However, current methods still heavily rely on human efforts or task-specific designs to generate counterfactuals, thereby impeding CAD's applicability to a broad range of NLU tasks. In this paper, we present AutoCAD, a fully automatic and task-agnostic CAD generation framework. AutoCAD first leverages a classifier to unsupervisedly identify rationales as spans to be intervened, which disentangles spurious and causal features. Then, AutoCAD performs controllable generation enhanced by unlikelihood training to produce diverse counterfactuals. Extensive evaluations on multiple out-of-domain and challenge benchmarks demonstrate that AutoCAD consistently and significantly boosts the out-of-distribution performance of powerful pre-trained models across different NLU tasks, which is comparable or even better than previous state-of-the-art human-in-the-loop or task-specific CAD methods. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/thu-coai/AutoCAD.

Many scientific questions require reasoning about what was never observed: What if the conditions, interventions, or history had been different? Models can predict accurately on observed data yet fail on such what-if queries when correlated inputs are varied independently. A common remedy is to add controlled simulation data in which these factors are explicitly disentangled, but this requires access to a simulator, can be computationally expensive, and inherits the simulator's modeling assumptions. We introduce ReRoute, a framework for targeted scientific what-if prediction that combines factual data with partial mechanistic knowledge, without requiring controlled intervention data for adaptation. ReRoute fixes the queried input of a pretrained backbone to a reference value, reintroduces its variation through a known mechanistic pathway, and fine-tunes on the original factual data, while leaving downstream effects to the learned dynamics. We provide a causal identification result for this construction under explicit structural assumptions, with the core argument machine-checked in Lean. After showing that ReRoute achieves highly accurate counterfactual predictions in a controlled advection-diffusion system where exact responses are available, we turn to state-of-the-art climate emulation. On held-out coupled-climate interventions, ReRoute reduces aggregate climate error by 18.2-31.8% under severe CO_2 distribution shifts while preserving skill under standard conditions, at a small fraction of the cost of retraining on additional controlled simulations, without even accounting for the substantial expense of generating such data. Finally, on an emulator trained from historical ERA5 reanalysis, where no counterfactual reference exists, ReRoute preserves substantially more of the surface warming implied by the observed boundary conditions under a fixed-CO_2 counterfactual.

Humans reason about the physical world by flexibly combining different forms of inference as a problem unfolds. Achieving this flexibility is a major open challenge in AI: capabilities often remain separated across specialized models, limiting how they can be composed and jointly adapted to a task. We introduce Ψ-0.6, a unified vision-language world model that adaptively composes perception, language, geometry, and simulation within a shared reasoning process we call streams of thought. These streams interleave images, text, and explicit representations of geometry and motion, all of which the model can generate and interpret through a shared token interface. Ψ-0.6 surpasses leading open-weight models zero-shot on multi-view spatial reasoning, with further gains from reasoning through geometric intermediates. It also supports counterfactual simulation: generating and interpreting imagined scenes to determine, for example, whether moving an object would obstruct a pathway. Reinforcement learning from task feedback jointly optimizes the selection, generation, and use of intermediate representations, improving visual question-answering accuracy with gains that transfer to unseen benchmarks. Ψ-0.6 offers a path toward adaptive physical reasoning -- not only predicting the physical world but also choosing the representations through which to reason.

Action-conditioned world models offer a scalable alternative to costly real-world interaction for improving robot policies. However, existing world-model-based methods largely treat world models as forward-only surrogates of the physical environment, leaving untapped a capability no physical environment affords: rewinding to past decision points to explore counterfactual futures. We introduce Rollback, a policy improvement paradigm that turns world models from passive simulators into counterfactual engines: it rolls back to critical decision points, branches into alternative actions, and contrasts their outcomes to attribute success to individual decisions. This concentrates imagination where it matters most and distills counterfactual outcomes into fine-grained, action-level supervision without a separately learned value model. We build a scalable training system that unifies distributed world-model search with asynchronous real-robot execution, forming a self-reinforcing cycle: real-world experience continually sharpens the world model, and a sharper world model in turn drives further policy improvement. We term the world-model side of this cycle test-time physics grounding, a capability that hand-built physics simulators lack: while the world model serves as the training environment, real transitions from the policy it trains correct its dynamics through a lightweight LoRA pipeline. Experiments on three challenging real-world tasks show that Rollback improves success rates over the strongest baseline by an absolute 10.67%, 11.11%, and 11.85% on block extraction, ball tossing, and tabletop curling, respectively, while achieving more stable improvement throughout training. Although initialized from teleoperated demonstrations far below human level, Rollback surpasses the average success rate of human players on both ball tossing and tabletop curling within 8 hours of training.

Patient world models are increasingly proposed as simulators of clinical trials, and recent surveys rank their capabilities on a ladder from temporal prediction to counterfactual rollouts. Position on that ladder is currently assigned by reading papers rather than by measurement. We turn the counterfactual rung into a measured quantity. From 30,119 completed phase 2/3 trials with results posted to ClinicalTrials.gov we construct 9,996 audited within-trial contrasts from 7,207 trials, and we score a simulator on how much of its accuracy depends on knowing which intervention was tested. The instrument is an intervention-blind reference: the same model, trained on the same trials, with every intervention-identifying field withheld. Interventional skill is the error the full model removes relative to that reference. On a temporal split (878 test contrasts from 655 trials) a registry-trained gradient-boosting simulator removes a fifth of the error of a trivial baseline, but its interventional skill is -0.12 (95% CI -0.21 to -0.05): withholding the intervention makes it better, and no alternative featurisation, stratum, temporal cut or same-molecule retrieval yields an interval above zero. A frontier language model reading only the registered protocol has interventional skill 0.20 [0.08, 0.31]; smaller and open-weight models sit at the limit of detection. Perturbation tests show the large model uses the intervention as such: swapping the arms reverses the sign of its prediction in 86% of contrasts. The blind reference is itself not drug-blind (a language model recovers the withheld drug class 45% of the time from the blind prompt), so interventional skill is a conservative lower bound. A reliability layer shows that ranking by predicted error lowers it but that calibrated error control does not transfer under temporal shift. Benchmark, code, prompts and per-call model outputs are released.

Understanding memorisation in language models has practical and societal implications, e.g., studying models' training dynamics or preventing copyright infringements. Prior work defines memorisation as the causal effect of training with an instance on the model's ability to predict that instance. This definition relies on a counterfactual: the ability to observe what would have happened had the model not seen that instance. Existing methods struggle to provide computationally efficient and accurate estimates of this counterfactual. Further, they often estimate memorisation for a model architecture rather than for a specific model instance. This paper fills an important gap in the literature, proposing a new, principled, and efficient method to estimate memorisation based on the difference-in-differences design from econometrics. Using this method, we characterise a model's memorisation profile--its memorisation trends across training--by only observing its behaviour on a small set of instances throughout training. In experiments with the Pythia model suite, we find that memorisation (i) is stronger and more persistent in larger models, (ii) is determined by data order and learning rate, and (iii) has stable trends across model sizes, thus making memorisation in larger models predictable from smaller ones.

Programming-by-example is the task of synthesizing a program that is consistent with a set of user-provided input-output examples. As examples are often an under-specification of one's intent, a good synthesizer must choose the intended program from the many that are consistent with the given set of examples. Prior work frames program synthesis as a cooperative game between a listener (that synthesizes programs) and a speaker (a user choosing examples), and shows that models of computational pragmatic inference are effective in choosing the user intended programs. However, these models require counterfactual reasoning over a large set of programs and examples, which is infeasible in realistic program spaces. In this paper, we propose a novel way to amortize this search with neural networks. We sample pairs of programs and examples via self-play between listener and speaker models, and use pragmatic inference to choose informative training examples from this sample.We then use the informative dataset to train models to improve the synthesizer's ability to disambiguate user-provided examples without human supervision. We validate our method on the challenging task of synthesizing regular expressions from example strings, and find that our method (1) outperforms models trained without choosing pragmatic examples by 23% (a 51% relative increase) (2) matches the performance of supervised learning on a dataset of pragmatic examples provided by humans, despite using no human data in training.

Counterfactual prompting (i.e., perturbing a single factor and measuring output change) is widely used to evaluate things like LLM bias and CoT faithfulness. But in this work we argue that observed effects cannot be attributed to the targeted factor without accounting for baseline ``meaning-preserving'' modifications to text that establish general model sensitivity. This is because every counterfactual edit is a compound treatment that bundles the variable of interest with incidental surface-form variation; this violates treatment variation irrelevance. We observe prediction flip rates on MedQA of 14.9% when we surgically change patient gender. However, this is statistically indistinguishable from the flip rates induced by simply paraphrasing inputs (14.1%). In this case, it would therefore be unwarranted to conclude that the LLM is especially sensitive to patient gender. To account for this and robustly measure the effects of targeted interventions, we propose a framework in which we compare (via statistical testing) differences observed under target interventions to those induced by paraphrasing inputs. We then use this framework to revisit a analysis done on the MedPerturb dataset, which reported evidence of model sensitivity to patient demographics and stylistic cues. We find that these effects largely dissipate when we account for general model sensitivity, with only 5 of 120 tests reaching statistical significance. Applying the same framework to occupational biography classification, we detect clearly significant directional gender bias, showing that the framework identifies real directional effects even when they are small. We evaluate a range of metrics -- aggregate, per-sample distributional, and regression -- and find that per-sample metrics are dramatically more powerful than aggregate metrics and regression powerfully and uniquely characterizes effect direction and magnitude.

Video-language models (VLMs) achieve strong multimodal understanding but remain prone to hallucinations, especially when reasoning about actions and temporal order. Existing mitigation strategies, such as textual filtering or random video perturbations, often fail to address the root cause: over-reliance on language priors rather than fine-grained visual dynamics. We propose a scalable framework for counterfactual video generation that synthesizes videos differing only in actions or temporal structure while preserving scene context. Our pipeline combines multimodal LLMs for action proposal and editing guidance with diffusion-based image and video models to generate semantic hard negatives at scale. Using this framework, we build CounterVid, a synthetic dataset of ~26k preference pairs targeting action recognition and temporal reasoning. We further introduce MixDPO, a unified Direct Preference Optimization approach that jointly leverages textual and visual preferences. Fine-tuning Qwen2.5-VL with MixDPO yields consistent improvements, notably in temporal ordering, and transfers effectively to standard video hallucination benchmarks. Code and models will be made publicly available.

Generative world models aim to predict future states conditioned on actions, where action controllability is fundamental for reliable dynamics modeling. While recent efforts leverage simulator-generated data to enhance this capability, existing training pipelines face two fundamental limitations. First, static offline data collection leads to a distribution misalignment between training sets and the model's evolving error patterns, failing to resolve critical long-tail scenarios where dynamics predictions remain unreliable. Second, the standard objective of minimizing observational discrepancy often encourages the model to exploit spurious correlations instead of capturing the underlying action-effect causality. To address these limitations, we propose OnlineWM, an online training framework that continuously improves world modeling through active simulator interaction and causality-aware optimization. OnlineWM introduces two key innovations: (1) Active Online Learning: Instead of using fixed datasets, OnlineWM adaptively queries the simulator for new interaction sequences that target the model's current predictive weaknesses, ensuring high-utility data acquisition. (2) Causality-Aware Fine-Tuning: We propose a counterfactual learning strategy that contrasts the outcomes of different actions from identical states, forcing the model to attribute state transitions to specific actions rather than ambient environmental evolution, thereby grounding its predictions in reliable causal mechanisms. By integrating active data acquisition with causal optimization, OnlineWM establishes a closed-loop refinement process that ensures the model is both robust to diverse scenarios and precise in its causal attribution. Extensive experiments demonstrate that OnlineWM significantly enhances action controllability and generalizes effectively to unseen domains.

Nowadays, deep vision models are being widely deployed in safety-critical applications, e.g., autonomous driving, and explainability of such models is becoming a pressing concern. Among explanation methods, counterfactual explanations aim to find minimal and interpretable changes to the input image that would also change the output of the model to be explained. Such explanations point end-users at the main factors that impact the decision of the model. However, previous methods struggle to explain decision models trained on images with many objects, e.g., urban scenes, which are more difficult to work with but also arguably more critical to explain. In this work, we propose to tackle this issue with an object-centric framework for counterfactual explanation generation. Our method, inspired by recent generative modeling works, encodes the query image into a latent space that is structured in a way to ease object-level manipulations. Doing so, it provides the end-user with control over which search directions (e.g., spatial displacement of objects, style modification, etc.) are to be explored during the counterfactual generation. We conduct a set of experiments on counterfactual explanation benchmarks for driving scenes, and we show that our method can be adapted beyond classification, e.g., to explain semantic segmentation models. To complete our analysis, we design and run a user study that measures the usefulness of counterfactual explanations in understanding a decision model. Code is available at https://github.com/valeoai/OCTET.

The recent phenomenal success of language models has reinvigorated machine learning research, and large sequence models such as transformers are being applied to a variety of domains. One important problem class that has remained relatively elusive however is purposeful adaptive behavior. Currently there is a common perception that sequence models "lack the understanding of the cause and effect of their actions" leading them to draw incorrect inferences due to auto-suggestive delusions. In this report we explain where this mismatch originates, and show that it can be resolved by treating actions as causal interventions. Finally, we show that in supervised learning, one can teach a system to condition or intervene on data by training with factual and counterfactual error signals respectively.

We present a general causal generative modelling framework for accurate estimation of high fidelity image counterfactuals with deep structural causal models. Estimation of interventional and counterfactual queries for high-dimensional structured variables, such as images, remains a challenging task. We leverage ideas from causal mediation analysis and advances in generative modelling to design new deep causal mechanisms for structured variables in causal models. Our experiments demonstrate that our proposed mechanisms are capable of accurate abduction and estimation of direct, indirect and total effects as measured by axiomatic soundness of counterfactuals.

This study evaluates the effect of counterfactual explanations on the interpretation of chest X-rays. We conduct a reader study with two radiologists assessing 240 chest X-ray predictions to rate their confidence that the model's prediction is correct using a 5 point scale. Half of the predictions are false positives. Each prediction is explained twice, once using traditional attribution methods and once with a counterfactual explanation. The overall results indicate that counterfactual explanations allow a radiologist to have more confidence in true positive predictions compared to traditional approaches (0.15pm0.95 with p=0.01) with only a small increase in false positive predictions (0.04pm1.06 with p=0.57). We observe the specific prediction tasks of Mass and Atelectasis appear to benefit the most compared to other tasks.

Machine learning plays a role in many deployed decision systems, often in ways that are difficult or impossible to understand by human stakeholders. Explaining, in a human-understandable way, the relationship between the input and output of machine learning models is essential to the development of trustworthy machine learning based systems. A burgeoning body of research seeks to define the goals and methods of explainability in machine learning. In this paper, we seek to review and categorize research on counterfactual explanations, a specific class of explanation that provides a link between what could have happened had input to a model been changed in a particular way. Modern approaches to counterfactual explainability in machine learning draw connections to the established legal doctrine in many countries, making them appealing to fielded systems in high-impact areas such as finance and healthcare. Thus, we design a rubric with desirable properties of counterfactual explanation algorithms and comprehensively evaluate all currently proposed algorithms against that rubric. Our rubric provides easy comparison and comprehension of the advantages and disadvantages of different approaches and serves as an introduction to major research themes in this field. We also identify gaps and discuss promising research directions in the space of counterfactual explainability.

Low latent prediction error does not establish that a world model distinguishes the consequences of its actions. We introduce an evaluation protocol that traces the same intervention through simulator state, raster observations, target embeddings, and predictor outputs. Exact simulator-state forks in a controlled deformable-physics testbed reveal distinct bottlenecks. Changed commands alter particle motion, yet 41.5% of one-step raster pairs are identical. Observation loss is not the whole explanation: among 579 high-visibility counterfactuals, median predictor-to-target response is 0.0051 and 0.0217 across two seeds, falling to 0.0027 and 0.0116 after variance normalization. An isotropic state perturbation matched to the target counterfactual embedding shift produces 190x and 53x larger predictor changes on the same visible pairs, isolating action-path under-use rather than a dead or globally shrunk predictor. MSE-only training gives 8.36x lower 10-step latent error in matched seeds, but in spectrally concentrated spaces; one VICReg target encoder is also strongly concentrated, so neither error nor rank alone certifies physical state. Finally, stiffness remains near chance even from full-resolution rasters and mechanical state while privileged material parameters decode perfectly, indicating weak identifiability under this excitation rather than encoder discard. These results motivate auditing physical effect, observation visibility, representation geometry, and action dependence separately.

Teaching humanoids loco-manipulation skills, such as carrying diverse objects, via visual imitation is a promising path toward generalist robots. However, collecting diverse, high-quality interaction videos, such as clips that clearly show a person's full body and unoccluded interactions with objects, poses a practical barrier to scaling this approach. We propose PRISM, a real-to-sim-to-real framework that overcomes this limitation by amplifying a handful of real videos into a large, diverse training set. PRISM first generates hundreds of diverse "counterfactual" human-object interaction videos via video-to-video (V2V) generation from a few exemplar real videos. Our contact-anchored real-to-sim pipeline then reconstructs both human and object motions, retargeting this imperfect video data into physically plausible trajectories. The intra-class variability across these counterfactual videos lets us train a single policy that generalizes to unseen objects within each category. We demonstrate the full pipeline by deploying this policy on a real robot without any real-world fine-tuning. Using only onboard depth observations, our humanoid picks up, carries, and drops objects, including boxes, barrels, bins, and balls, across novel instances, sizes, and initial configurations.

Foundation models remain vulnerable to spurious correlations and ``Clever Hans'' strategies. Explainable machine learning can find and remove such strategies for classifiers without metadata. For foundation models, no such option exists yet. We propose Disentangled Diffusion Autoencoders (DiDAE). DiDAE wraps a frozen foundation model in a conditional diffusion decoder. A counterfactual is one closed-form edit along a direction of a disentangled dictionary, followed by decoding. The dictionary can be supervised (Procrustes) or unsupervised (Singular Value Decomposition, Sparse Autoencoders). No gradients are needed, so DiDAE is up to 2000 times faster than the state of the art. We evaluate on six datasets, two synthetic and four real-world. In a desiderata-driven benchmark on three of them, its counterfactuals are on par with or better than the state of the art, and they repair downstream classifiers through Counterfactual Knowledge Distillation (CFKD), where they beat metadata-based correction. The same machinery can rank a pretrained dictionary against a trained classifier. It returns the few directions the classifier actually reads, each causally verified by a counterfactual that flips the decision, and repairs the classifier along those a teacher marks spurious. The workflow is plug-and-play in our open-source Peal library we publish alongside the paper. With a public dictionary and a pretrained decoder, all that remains is a cheap linear distillation of the classifier and its own fine-tuning.

Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have made remarkable progress in video understanding. However, they suffer from a critical vulnerability: an over-reliance on language priors, which can lead to visual ungrounded hallucinations, especially when processing counterfactual videos that defy common sense. This limitation, stemming from the intrinsic data imbalance between text and video, is challenging to address due to the substantial cost of collecting and annotating counterfactual data. To address this, we introduce DualityForge, a novel counterfactual data synthesis framework that employs controllable, diffusion-based video editing to transform real-world videos into counterfactual scenarios. By embedding structured contextual information into the video editing and QA generation processes, the framework automatically produces high-quality QA pairs together with original-edited video pairs for contrastive training. Based on this, we build DualityVidQA, a large-scale video dataset designed to reduce MLLM hallucinations. In addition, to fully exploit the contrastive nature of our paired data, we propose Duality-Normalized Advantage Training (DNA-Train), a two-stage SFT-RL training regime where the RL phase applies pair-wise ell_1 advantage normalization, thereby enabling a more stable and efficient policy optimization. Experiments on DualityVidQA-Test demonstrate that our method substantially reduces model hallucinations on counterfactual videos, yielding a relative improvement of 24.0% over the Qwen2.5-VL-7B baseline. Moreover, our approach achieves significant gains across both hallucination and general-purpose benchmarks, indicating strong generalization capability. We will open-source our dataset and code.

Counterfactual explanations is one of the post-hoc methods used to provide explainability to machine learning models that have been attracting attention in recent years. Most examples in the literature, address the problem of generating post-hoc explanations for black-box machine learning models after the rejection of a loan application. In contrast, in this work, we investigate mathematical programming formulations for scorecard models, a type of interpretable model predominant within the banking industry for lending. The proposed mixed-integer programming formulations combine objective functions to ensure close, realistic and sparse counterfactuals using multi-objective optimization techniques for a binary, probability or continuous outcome. Moreover, we extend these formulations to generate multiple optimal counterfactuals simultaneously while guaranteeing diversity. Experiments on two real-world datasets confirm that the presented approach can generate optimal diverse counterfactuals addressing desired properties with assumable CPU times for practice use.

As video diffusion models (VDMs) advance toward world models, a key question arises: do they truly understand causality, or merely overfit to statistical temporal patterns? Existing benchmarks mostly rely on synthetic data, limiting real-world generalization due to the sim-to-real gap. We present YoCausal, a two-level benchmark inspired by the Violation of Expectation (VoE) paradigm from cognitive science. By temporally reversing real-world videos at zero cost as natural counterfactual samples, YoCausal establishes an arbitrarily extensible evaluation protocol. Level 1 introduces the Reverse Surprise Index (RSI), quantifying arrow-of-time perception via denoising loss. Level 2 introduces the Causality Cognition Index (CCI), which leverages a VLM to stratify datasets into causal and non-causal subsets, disentangling genuine causal reasoning from temporal bias. Evaluation of 13 state-of-the-art VDMs reveals that perceiving the arrow of time does not imply understanding causality, and a significant gap persists relative to human-level causal cognition.

Counterfactual tuning (CFT) has emerged as a promising paradigm for Large Language Model (LLM) unlearning by training models to generate alternative fictitious knowledge in place of undesired content. However, in this work, we find that this paradigm still underperforms other paradigms in some aspects, and identify two previously overlooked pitfalls underlying this gap: (1) knowledge conflict, where mutual inconsistencies within counterfactual corpora induce conflicting gradients that disrupt parameter optimization, and (2) hallucination spillover, where fitting false targets instills a persistent fabrication bias, inflating hallucination rates on unrelated domains. To systematically diagnose these issues, we introduce RWKU+, an extended benchmark equipped with novel trade-off metrics and gradient-level diagnostic tools. Our work further discusses the limitations and overhead of the paradigm, aiming to provide insights and actionable guidance for more rigorous LLM unlearning research.

Extracting optical flow from videos remains a core computer vision problem. Motivated by the success of large general-purpose models, we ask whether frozen self-supervised video models trained only for future frame prediction can be prompted, without fine-tuning, to output flow. Prior work reading out depth or illumination from video generators required fine-tuning, which is impractical for flow where labels are scarce and synthetic datasets suffer from a sim-to-real gap. Inspired by the Counterfactual World Model (CWM) paradigm, which can obtain point-wise correspondences by injecting a small tracer perturbation into a next-frame predictor and tracking its propagation, we extend this idea to generative video models. We explore several popular architectures and find that successful zero-shot flow extraction in this manner is aided by three model properties: (1) distributional prediction of future frames (avoiding blurry or noisy outputs); (2) factorized latents that treat each spatio-temporal patch independently; and (3) random-access decoding that can condition on any subset of future pixels. These properties are uniquely present in the recent Local Random Access Sequence (LRAS) architecture. Building on LRAS, we propose KL-tracing: a novel test-time procedure that injects a localized perturbation into the first frame, rolls out the model one step, and computes the Kullback-Leibler divergence between perturbed and unperturbed predictive distributions. Without any flow-specific fine-tuning, our method outperforms state-of-the-art models on real-world TAP-Vid DAVIS dataset (16.6% relative improvement for endpoint error) and synthetic TAP-Vid Kubric (4.7% relative improvement). Our results indicate that counterfactual prompting of controllable generative video models is a scalable and effective alternative to supervised or photometric-loss approaches for high-quality flow.

Causal inference is often focused on average effects, which can hide important aspects of the effect distributions. Here we consider the entire posterior effects distribution by estimating full counterfactual outcome distributions. We propose a methodology for inference on counterfactual distributions which builds upon the martingale posterior framework of Fong et al. (2023). This provides a highly flexible approach to estimating densities, distribution functions, and derived quantities such as quantiles, which coherently quantifies the epistemic uncertainty on any target estimand of interest. As the predictive recursions are based on an underlying nonparametric model (a Dirichlet process mixture model), our method naturally inherits robustness with respect to restrictive parametric assumptions. In addition, implementation of our method is typically very fast. This approach can be applied to marginal or conditional counterfactual distributions and is easily extended to an instrumental variables setup. Using the concept of almost conditionally identically distributed random variables, we prove convergence of the martingale posterior inference on the counterfactual outcome distributions for the causal models considered in the paper. We illustrate our approach on both simulated and real data. Using the latter, we investigate the effect of zinc lozenges on common cold duration, the impact of vitamin A supplementation on children's survival rates with one-sided non-compliance (analysed in Imbens and Rubin, 1997a) and the effect of job training (LaLonde, 1986).

Visual imitation learning provides an effective framework to learn skills from demonstrations. However, the quality of the provided demonstrations usually significantly affects the ability of an agent to acquire desired skills. Therefore, the standard visual imitation learning assumes near-optimal demonstrations, which are expensive or sometimes prohibitive to collect. Previous works propose to learn from noisy demonstrations; however, the noise is usually assumed to follow a context-independent distribution such as a uniform or gaussian distribution. In this paper, we consider another crucial yet underexplored setting -- imitation learning with task-irrelevant yet locally consistent segments in the demonstrations (e.g., wiping sweat while cutting potatoes in a cooking tutorial). We argue that such noise is common in real world data and term them "extraneous" segments. To tackle this problem, we introduce Extraneousness-Aware Imitation Learning (EIL), a self-supervised approach that learns visuomotor policies from third-person demonstrations with extraneous subsequences. EIL learns action-conditioned observation embeddings in a self-supervised manner and retrieves task-relevant observations across visual demonstrations while excluding the extraneous ones. Experimental results show that EIL outperforms strong baselines and achieves comparable policies to those trained with perfect demonstration on both simulated and real-world robot control tasks. The project page can be found at https://sites.google.com/view/eil-website.

Interpretability research on large language models (LLMs) has yielded important insights into model behaviour, yet recurring pitfalls persist: findings that do not generalise, and causal interpretations that outrun the evidence. Our position is that causal inference specifies what constitutes a valid mapping from model activations to invariant high-level structures, the data or assumptions needed to achieve it, and the inferences it can support. Specifically, Pearl's causal hierarchy clarifies what an interpretability study can justify. Observations establish associations between model behaviour and internal components. Interventions (e.g., ablations or activation patching) support claims how these edits affect a behavioural metric (e.g., average change in token probabilities) over a set of prompts. However, counterfactual claims -- i.e., asking what the model output would have been for the same prompt under an unobserved intervention -- remain largely unverifiable without controlled supervision. We show how causal representation learning (CRL) operationalises this hierarchy, specifying which variables are recoverable from activations and under what assumptions. Together, these motivate a diagnostic framework that helps practitioners select methods and evaluations matching claims to evidence such that findings generalise.

Interventional counterfactuals evaluate statements such as "had A been a" by replacing the assignment for A while keeping the unit's exogenous background fixed. Backtracking counterfactuals reverse this logic: they preserve the structural assignments and instead vary background conditions across worlds. This semantics is natural for diagnostic explanation, but full backtracking may be too permissive because every exogenous coordinate can vary. We introduce scope-restricted backtracking counterfactuals, in which the modeler specifies which coordinates may vary while the remainder are shared across worlds. The scope determines the admissible carriers of the contrast, while a cross-world kernel governs the plausibility of their alternative values. We present model-based inference for general scope-restricted backtracking counterfactuals, derive sharp marginal bounds for a specified explanatory query, and establish frontier and compatibility conditions under which this explanatory query admits a modified-value policy representation. A linear-Gaussian example distinguishes local-noise, ancestor, irrelevant-noise, and infeasible explanations across scopes, while an application to the UCI Adult benchmark illustrates kernel specification, sensitivity, and how much of the explanation is carried by the cross-world coupling itself.

Most benchmarks for causal inference over time series are observational, small, or domain-specific, leaving interventional and counterfactual estimation under-served exactly where it matters most, such as in healthcare, policy evaluation, and climate science. We introduce DoTime, an open, scalable, and theoretically grounded generator of multivariate temporal structural causal models (TSCMs) with interventions, released as the dotime PyPI package together with four frozen evaluation suites. Beyond existing work, it adds capabilities absent from prior generators: continuous-time intervention windows, counterfactual sampling modes with a positivity guard, regime-switching SCMs as a strict generalization of interrupted time series, non-stationary dynamics by construction with switching SCM parameters, and deterministic ramp and sinusoidal intervention profiles that place trends and structural breaks inside the evaluation window. Moreover, it demonstrates the suitability of the generator as a prior for a causal foundation model reference implementation. The released suites span a training-scale snapshot of 100{,}000 trajectories and eight named identification structures, each with exact ground truth: paired interventional trajectories from the same SCM throughout, and shared-noise counterfactuals in the continuous-time suite. We ship reference baseline implementations with an evaluation harness, and pose a falsifiable claim: interventional training buys a measurable direction-accuracy advantage over an observational model of identical capacity. It is tested across three training seeds per arm. Under structure-matched evaluation on held-out episodes, the interventional prior-fitted network's (PFN) gap is positive in every structure, trajectory length, and seed tested.

Concept-based explanations quantify how high-level concepts (e.g., gender or experience) influence model behavior, which is crucial for decision-makers in high-stakes domains. Recent work evaluates the faithfulness of such explanations by comparing them to reference causal effects estimated from counterfactuals. In practice, existing benchmarks rely on costly human-written counterfactuals that serve as an imperfect proxy. To address this, we introduce a framework for constructing datasets containing structural counterfactual pairs: LIBERTy (LLM-based Interventional Benchmark for Explainability with Reference Targets). LIBERTy is grounded in explicitly defined Structured Causal Models (SCMs) of the text generation, interventions on a concept propagate through the SCM until an LLM generates the counterfactual. We introduce three datasets (disease detection, CV screening, and workplace violence prediction) together with a new evaluation metric, order-faithfulness. Using them, we evaluate a wide range of methods across five models and identify substantial headroom for improving concept-based explanations. LIBERTy also enables systematic analysis of model sensitivity to interventions: we find that proprietary LLMs show markedly reduced sensitivity to demographic concepts, likely due to post-training mitigation. Overall, LIBERTy provides a much-needed benchmark for developing faithful explainability methods.

This paper uncovers a critical yet overlooked phenomenon in multi-modal large language models (MLLMs): detrimental concept drift within chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning during non-stationary reinforcement fine-tuning (RFT), where reasoning token distributions evolve unpredictably, thereby introducing significant biases in final predictions. To address this, we are pioneers in establishing the theoretical bridge between concept drift theory and RFT processes by formalizing CoT's autoregressive token streams as non-stationary distributions undergoing arbitrary temporal shifts. Leveraging this framework, we propose a novel counterfact-aware RFT that systematically decouples beneficial distribution adaptation from harmful concept drift through concept graph-empowered LLM experts generating counterfactual reasoning trajectories. Our solution, Counterfactual Preference Optimization (CPO), enables stable RFT in non-stationary environments, particularly within the medical domain, through custom-tuning of counterfactual-aware preference alignment. Extensive experiments demonstrate our superior performance of robustness, generalization and coordination within RFT. Besides, we also contributed a large-scale dataset CXR-CounterFact (CCF), comprising 320,416 meticulously curated counterfactual reasoning trajectories derived from MIMIC-CXR. Our code and data are public.

Diffusion models have revolutionized image editing but often generate images that violate physical laws, particularly the effects of objects on the scene, e.g., occlusions, shadows, and reflections. By analyzing the limitations of self-supervised approaches, we propose a practical solution centered on a counterfactual dataset. Our method involves capturing a scene before and after removing a single object, while minimizing other changes. By fine-tuning a diffusion model on this dataset, we are able to not only remove objects but also their effects on the scene. However, we find that applying this approach for photorealistic object insertion requires an impractically large dataset. To tackle this challenge, we propose bootstrap supervision; leveraging our object removal model trained on a small counterfactual dataset, we synthetically expand this dataset considerably. Our approach significantly outperforms prior methods in photorealistic object removal and insertion, particularly at modeling the effects of objects on the scene.

Failure attribution in multi-agent systems -- pinpointing the exact step where a decisive error occurs -- is a critical yet unsolved challenge. Current methods treat this as a pattern recognition task over long conversation logs, leading to critically low step-level accuracy (below 17\%), which renders them impractical for debugging complex systems. Their core weakness is a fundamental inability to perform robust counterfactual reasoning: to determine if correcting a single action would have actually averted the task failure. To bridge this counterfactual inference gap, we introduce Abduct-Act-Predict (A2P) Scaffolding, a novel agent framework that transforms failure attribution from pattern recognition into a structured causal inference task. A2P explicitly guides a large language model through a formal three-step reasoning process within a single inference pass: (1) Abduction, to infer the hidden root causes behind an agent's actions; (2) Action, to define a minimal corrective intervention; and (3) Prediction, to simulate the subsequent trajectory and verify if the intervention resolves the failure. This structured approach leverages the holistic context of the entire conversation while imposing a rigorous causal logic on the model's analysis. Our extensive experiments on the Who\&When benchmark demonstrate its efficacy. On the Algorithm-Generated dataset, A2P achieves 47.46\% step-level accuracy, a 2.85times improvement over the 16.67\% of the baseline. On the more complex Hand-Crafted dataset, it achieves 29.31\% step accuracy, a 2.43times improvement over the baseline's 12.07\%. By reframing the problem through a causal lens, A2P Scaffolding provides a robust, verifiable, and significantly more accurate solution for automated failure attribution. Ours code are released at https://github.com/ResearAI/A2P.

Language models are known to absorb biases from their training data, leading to predictions driven by statistical regularities rather than semantic relevance. We investigate the impact of these biases on answer choice preferences in the Massive Multi-Task Language Understanding (MMLU) task. Our findings reveal that differences in learned regularities across answer options are predictive of model preferences and mirror human test-taking strategies. To address this issue, we introduce two novel methods: Counterfactual Prompting with Chain of Thought (CoT) and Counterfactual Prompting with Agnostically Primed CoT (APriCoT). We demonstrate that while Counterfactual Prompting with CoT alone is insufficient to mitigate bias, our novel Primed Counterfactual Prompting with CoT approach effectively reduces the influence of base-rate probabilities while improving overall accuracy. Our results suggest that mitigating bias requires a "System-2" like process and that CoT reasoning is susceptible to confirmation bias under some prompting methodologies. Our contributions offer practical solutions for developing more robust and fair language models.

Interpretability research now offers a variety of techniques for identifying abstract internal mechanisms in neural networks. Can such techniques be used to predict how models will behave on out-of-distribution examples? In this work, we provide a positive answer to this question. Through a diverse set of language modeling tasks--including symbol manipulation, knowledge retrieval, and instruction following--we show that the most robust features for correctness prediction are those that play a distinctive causal role in the model's behavior. Specifically, we propose two methods that leverage causal mechanisms to predict the correctness of model outputs: counterfactual simulation (checking whether key causal variables are realized) and value probing (using the values of those variables to make predictions). Both achieve high AUC-ROC in distribution and outperform methods that rely on causal-agnostic features in out-of-distribution settings, where predicting model behaviors is more crucial. Our work thus highlights a novel and significant application for internal causal analysis of language models.

Counterfactual medical image generation enables clinicians to explore clinical hypotheses, such as predicting disease progression, facilitating their decision-making. While existing methods can generate visually plausible images from disease progression prompts, they produce silent predictions that lack interpretation to verify how the generation reflects the hypothesized progression -- a critical gap for medical applications that require traceable reasoning. In this paper, we propose Interpretable Counterfactual Generation (ICG), a novel task requiring the joint generation of counterfactual images that reflect the clinical hypothesis and interpretation texts that outline the visual changes induced by the hypothesis. To enable ICG, we present ICG-CXR, the first dataset pairing longitudinal medical images with hypothetical progression prompts and textual interpretations. We further introduce ProgEmu, an autoregressive model that unifies the generation of counterfactual images and textual interpretations. We demonstrate the superiority of ProgEmu in generating progression-aligned counterfactuals and interpretations, showing significant potential in enhancing clinical decision support and medical education. Project page: https://progemu.github.io.

Imitation-learning policies inherit the quality of the demonstrations they are trained on, and a growing set of curation metrics promise to score and filter low-quality demonstrations automatically. These metrics are each validated on different data with different protocols, so it is unclear which of them actually identify the demonstrations that harm a policy. We build a controlled testbed in which demonstration defects are injected with known type, and audit seven curation metrics along two axes: how well each separates defective from clean demonstrations, and whether training a behavior-cloning policy on each metric's curated subset improves task success. We study two defect regimes. Subtle perturbations (correlated action noise, tremor, truncation) are detectable by multivariate outlier scoring and, once removed, recover the full downstream gap. Structural errors, where the demonstration executes a wrong action at a key moment, are invisible to every action-only metric we test, and two of them are inverted: they score defective demonstrations as higher quality and, used for curation, tend to leave the policy at or below the uncurated baseline rather than above it. Only metrics that examine the state trajectory detect structural errors, and even the best of them recovers just a third of the downstream gap. High detection accuracy does not guarantee downstream improvement. We release the testbed and all curation implementations.

Arditi et al. (2024) has shown that refusal in safety fine-tuned chat models is mediated by a single linear direction in the residual stream, recoverable by a difference-in-means (DiM) of harmful and harmless activations. We compare DiM-based interventions (activation addition and directional ablation) with two interventions derived from Iterative Nullspace Projection (INLP) -- nullspace projection and counterfactual flipping -- on five open-weight chat models, asking whether INLP can match DiM at steering refusal and whether its richer parameterisation yields more tweakable interventions. INLP counterfactual flipping is competitive with DiM directional ablation on refusal suppression, while nullspace projection is consistently weaker. Restricting INLP to the leading directions of the extracted subspace preserves most of the suppression effect at near-baseline perplexity, giving a tunable capability. Geometrically, the two INLP interventions land in qualitatively different regions of activation space: nullspace projection collapses transformed activations between the harmful and harmless clusters, while counterfactual flipping moves them into the opposite cluster, suggesting that the model encodes the absence of a concept differently from its opposite -- an intriguing distinction that warrants further investigation in future work.

Explaining multivariate time series is a compound challenge, as it requires identifying important locations in the time series and matching complex temporal patterns. Although previous saliency-based methods addressed the challenges, their perturbation may not alleviate the distribution shift issue, which is inevitable especially in heterogeneous samples. We present ContraLSP, a locally sparse model that introduces counterfactual samples to build uninformative perturbations but keeps distribution using contrastive learning. Furthermore, we incorporate sample-specific sparse gates to generate more binary-skewed and smooth masks, which easily integrate temporal trends and select the salient features parsimoniously. Empirical studies on both synthetic and real-world datasets show that ContraLSP outperforms state-of-the-art models, demonstrating a substantial improvement in explanation quality for time series data. The source code is available at https://github.com/zichuan-liu/ContraLSP.

Despite recent progress in 3D-LLMs, they remain limited in accurately grounding language to visual and spatial elements in 3D environments. This limitation stems in part from training data that focuses on language reasoning rather than spatial understanding due to scarce 3D resources, leaving inherent grounding biases unresolved. To address this, we propose 3D scene editing as a key mechanism to generate precise visual counterfactuals that mitigate these biases through fine-grained spatial manipulation, without requiring costly scene reconstruction or large-scale 3D data collection. Furthermore, to make these edits targeted and directly address the specific weaknesses of the model, we introduce DEER-3D, an error-driven framework following a structured "Decompose, Diagnostic Evaluation, Edit, and Re-train" workflow, rather than broadly or randomly augmenting data as in conventional approaches. Specifically, upon identifying a grounding failure of the 3D-LLM, our framework first diagnoses the exact predicate-level error (e.g., attribute or spatial relation). It then executes minimal, predicate-aligned 3D scene edits, such as recoloring or repositioning, to produce targeted counterfactual supervision for iterative model fine-tuning, significantly enhancing grounding accuracy. We evaluate our editing pipeline across multiple benchmarks for 3D grounding and scene understanding tasks, consistently demonstrating improvements across all evaluated datasets through iterative refinement. DEER-3D underscores the effectiveness of targeted, error-driven scene editing in bridging linguistic reasoning capabilities with spatial grounding in 3D LLMs.

In this paper, we demonstrate the feasibility of alterfactual explanations for black box image classifiers. Traditional explanation mechanisms from the field of Counterfactual Thinking are a widely-used paradigm for Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI), as they follow a natural way of reasoning that humans are familiar with. However, most common approaches from this field are based on communicating information about features or characteristics that are especially important for an AI's decision. However, to fully understand a decision, not only knowledge about relevant features is needed, but the awareness of irrelevant information also highly contributes to the creation of a user's mental model of an AI system. To this end, a novel approach for explaining AI systems called alterfactual explanations was recently proposed on a conceptual level. It is based on showing an alternative reality where irrelevant features of an AI's input are altered. By doing so, the user directly sees which input data characteristics can change arbitrarily without influencing the AI's decision. In this paper, we show for the first time that it is possible to apply this idea to black box models based on neural networks. To this end, we present a GAN-based approach to generate these alterfactual explanations for binary image classifiers. Further, we present a user study that gives interesting insights on how alterfactual explanations can complement counterfactual explanations.

A training-data quality gate changes both which examples survive within regions of the input space and how training mass is distributed across those regions, so a gate-versus-random comparison does not isolate these mechanisms. We introduce Counterfactual Gate-Support Decomposition (CGSD), a four-arm, budget-matched design that crosses gate eligibility with support distribution and decomposes the observed gate effect into within-support selection, between-support redistribution, and their interaction. The practical constraint is finite-pool realizability: we characterize mass and token-assembly conditions under which the required arms can be constructed, together with a support-extinction case in which the ordinary design is undefined. On Korean-English and Korean-Japanese retrieval, the mean within-support selection component is the only one that exceeds its calibrated null band (+29.7 and +5.6 holdout items; 30/30 positive replicates), decisively in Korean-English and marginally in Korean-Japanese; redistribution and interaction remain unresolved at the available power. The same pattern holds for a second, unrelated gate family -- a model-confidence threshold rather than a deterministic verifier -- judged against its own null (+27.3 items, 9/9 positive), so the result is not a property of one gate's mechanism. On a mathematics gate, zero-eligibility supports leave the ordinary design undefined at every budget, while the extended design is constructible only inside narrow budget bands that an exhaustive scan locates and that the natural operating point misses -- the assembly condition separating a property of the pool from a limitation of the packer. CGSD therefore returns a decomposition, a constructible-but-underpowered design, or an explicit non-constructibility result, and says which; it prevents support redistribution from being silently interpreted as sample-level gate quality.

Vision-language models (VLMs) can achieve high accuracy while still accepting culturally plausible but visually incorrect interpretations. Existing hallucination benchmarks rarely test this failure mode, particularly outside Western contexts and English. We introduce M^2CQA, a culturally grounded multimodal benchmark built from images spanning 17 MENA countries, paired with contrastive true and counterfactual statements in English, Arabic, and its dialects. To isolate hallucination beyond raw accuracy, we propose the CounterFactual Hallucination Rate (CFHR), which measures counterfactual acceptance conditioned on correctly answering the true statement. Evaluating state-of-the-art VLMs under multiple prompting strategies, we find that CFHR rises sharply in Arabic, especially in dialects, even when true-statement accuracy remains high. Moreover, reasoning-first prompting consistently increases counterfactual hallucination, while answering before justifying improves robustness. We make the dataset publicly available for the community (https://huggingface.co/datasets/QCRI/M2CQA)).

Recent advances in multimodal language models (MLLMs) have achieved remarkable progress in vision-language reasoning, especially with the emergence of "thinking with images," which integrates explicit visual steps into the reasoning process. While this paradigm strengthens image-based reasoning, a significant challenge remains: models may arrive at correct answers by relying on irrelevant or spurious regions, driven by prior knowledge or dataset biases. Even when the answer is correct, flawed reasoning indicates that the model has not truly understood the image, highlighting the critical importance of reasoning fidelity in multimodal tasks. To address this issue, we propose DeFacto, a counterfactual reasoning framework that jointly enforces accurate answering and faithful reasoning. A key component of our approach is the design of three complementary training paradigms: (i) positive, (ii) counterfactual, and (iii) random-masking. To enable these paradigms, we develop a pipeline that automatically localizes question-relevant evidence and constructs positive, counterfactual, and random variants, resulting in a dataset of about 100k images. Building on this framework, we train multimodal language models with GRPO-based reinforcement learning, where we design three complementary rewards to guide the model toward accurate answering and evidence-grounded reasoning. Experiments on diverse benchmarks demonstrate that DeFacto substantially improves both answer accuracy and reasoning faithfulness, establishing a stronger foundation for interpretable multimodal reasoning. The code is available on GitHub and the dataset is released on HuggingFace.