arxiv:2603.13715

Measuring Primitive Accumulation: An Information-Theoretic Approach to Capitalist Enclosure in PIK2, Indonesia

Published on Mar 14

· Submitted by

Sandy Hardian Susanto Herho on Mar 18

Institut Teknologi Bandung

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Authors:

Sandy Hardian Susanto Herho ,

Abstract

Large-scale land enclosure for speculative mega-development constitutes a non-equilibrium spatial process whose velocity, topology, and irreversibility remain poorly quantified. We study the Pantai Indah Kapuk 2 (PIK2) coastal mega-development north of Jakarta, Indonesia, using eight years (2017--2024) of Sentinel-2 land-use/land-cover (LULC) data at 10-meter resolution. The landscape is projected onto a Marxian probability simplex partitioning terrestrial pixels into Commons, Agrarian, and Capital fractions. Fisher-Rao (FR) geodesic distances on this simplex identify a transformation pulse of 0.405~rad/yr during 2019--2020, coinciding with major construction activity. Absorbing Markov chain analysis yields expected absorption times into the built environment of 46.0~years for cropland and 38.1~years for tree cover, with a pooled built-area self-retention rate of 96.4%. Percolation analysis reveals that a giant connected component containing 89--95% of all built pixels persists at occupation probabilities p in [0.096, 0.162], far below the random percolation threshold p_c approx 0.593, indicating planned rather than stochastic spatial growth. The box-counting fractal dimension of the urban boundary increases from d_f = 1.316 to 1.397, consistent with increasingly irregular frontier expansion. These results suggest that information-geometric and statistical-mechanical tools can characterize the kinematic and topological signatures of capitalist spatial accumulation with quantitative precision.

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sandyherho

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This study introduces a novel statistical-mechanical framework to quantify the kinematics and topology of capitalist land enclosure in the PIK2 coastal mega-development of Indonesia using eight years of 10-meter resolution Sentinel-2 data. By projecting the landscape onto a Marxian probability simplex, we employ Fisher-Rao geodesic distances to identify a peak transformation velocity of 0.405 rad/yr during major construction phases, while absorbing Markov chain analysis predicts a 46.0-year expected absorption time for agricultural cropland into the built environment. Furthermore, percolation analysis reveals a giant connected component containing over 89% of built pixels at occupation probabilities far below the random threshold, providing a mathematical signature of top-down planned development rather than organic growth. Complemented by an increasing fractal dimension from 1.316 to 1.397 that reflects irregular, "tentacular" frontier expansion, this work demonstrates how information-geometric and statistical-mechanical tools can effectively characterize the non-equilibrium dynamics of planetary urbanization.