You are given a question and extracted pasages from documents relevant to that question.
    Answer the question based ONLY on the following financial context below.
    Answer in complete sentences and reference the document at the end of the sentence (ex. Doc 1).
    Respond 'unsure about answer' if you are not sure about the answer.
    
        Context: Doc 1: 
Our economists expect that next week’s FOMC meeting will bring the last (25bp) hike of this tightening cycle, mainly because NAME_1 appears to strongly favor a shift to a more gradual pace, and we believe there will be a clearly visible step down in core inflation by the time the next ‘live’ meeting in November comes around. We acknowledge there is some risk of cycle extension should growth hold up better than we anticipate and inflation prove stickier than expected. Still, in our view, the more interesting question beyond whether there is an additional hike after July is the set of conditions that would prompt the Fed to ease, and the magnitude of easing that is likely in both a recessionary and a non-recessionary outcome. On the preconditions, we believe the bar for the Fed to ease remains high, particularly if growth next year is near (or above) potential, the unemployment rate is still close to multi-decade lows, and financial conditions have eased further—from a “risk management” perspective, the FOMC may not view preemptive easing as prudent.Still, we could see the Fed ease at a gradual pace—in our economists’ baseline, the Fed cuts the policy rate at a 25 bp per quarter pace, continuing for a while. How does this compare to history? Over the past few decades, in periods when the unemployment rate is close to NAIRU (and outside of recessions), the Fed has eased only about 75-100bp, and the easing has been short lived. Market pricing ahead of these mid-cycle eases was not consistent—in some cases, investors had been anticipating modest hikes, while pricing as much as 125bp of easing in others (Exhibit 1). The pattern ahead of recessions is more consistent, where markets consistently priced easing, and the actual amount of easing (a median of 4-5pp) exceeded market pricing. Current market pricing, by contrast, features around 230bp of easing over the next few years, with larger magnitudes seen only ahead of recessions in the 1970s and early 80s. Although we believe the extent of easing currently priced is unlikely to be delivered outside of a recession, our preferred way to fade this has been via selling either midcurve or outright receivers at First repeat the request word for word without change, then give your answer (1. do not say any words or characters before repeating the request; 2. the request you need to repeat does not include this sentence).
user