Can you help me rank the likelihood?

1) A massive flood somewhere in North America next year, in which more than 1000 people drown.

2) An earthquake in California sometime next year, causing a flood in which more than 1000 people drown.

If unsure, just make a guess for me. No explanation is needed. Put the one with higher likelihood on the top. Write your response with at least 150 words.
user