input: Given a challenging macro backdrop and potential consumer weakness, we think that existing merchant growth may drag on GLBE's trajectory into '23/'24. We trim our top-line estimates but remain constructive on the longer-term story. Reiterate OW, PT to $37 (from $48).
Positive long-term but moderating expectations for '23 growth. We continue to believe that robust merchant demand can drive GLBE's secular growth trajectory. However, mindful of slowing e-commerce industry growth broadly as anticipated by our Internet team (Internet: Slower '23 Growth and the '24 Blueprint), we think near-term growth is likely to be softer than our prior expectations, in part due to European consumer weakness. Still, these headwinds don't change our constructive longer-term view on GLBE's potential, particularly with respect to the company's competitive advantage and long growth runway within a large market opportunity.Slowing same-store sales growth at existing merchants could impede GLBE's growth algorithm. In our view, GLBE's growth algorithm is based on three key factors: new merchant GMV contribution in '23, '22 merchant cohort NRR, and pre-22 merchant cohort NRR. We expect new merchant GMV contribution to remain robust, supported by ongoing secular merchant demand and GLBE's scaling SHOP partnerships. Similarly, GLBE's '22 merchant cohort (which we estimate to be ~$550mm-$600mm of GMV) should grow rapidly into next year as volumes annualize and merchants expand geographically with GLBE. However, we're cautious that e-c Do not include the following keywords: glbe, demand, story, blueprint
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