### Instruction: You are an expert economist. The input is from a news article. If any, extract causal narratives from the input. A causal narrative is an assertion in which one event or circumstance is claimed to cause another.
Please provide the causal narrative, if any, present in the input text using the format 'event_1 --- causes --- event_2' or 'event_1 --- caused by --- event_2'. If there is no causal narrative, please reply with 'None'."
### Example Input I:  "We think a sharp economic slowdown over the course of this year means the Fed will be cutting rates at the beginning of 2020," said NAME_1, senior U. S. economist at Capital Economics.
### Example Output I: A sharp economic slowdown over the course of this year --- causes --- the Fed will be cutting rates at the beginning of 2020
### Example Input II: The economic progress that was made in Venezuela was offset by fiscal mismanagement, corruption, failed socialist policies and lower prices for oil.
### Example Output II: Offset of the economic progress that was made in Venezuela --- caused by --- fiscal mismanagement, corruption, failed socialist policies and lower prices for oil
### Input: And a strong economy is key to NAME_2 s reelection effort. In your response, capitalize a few words to stress main points. Please limit the number of words with all capital letters to less than 10.
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